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07 Nov 2023

Trade whack-a-mole

Based on this morning’s data from the Census Bureau, one could be forgiven for imagining that the trade tariffs implemented under the Trump administration – and kept largely intact under Biden – are working. The US goods deficit in the first nine months of the year shrank relative to the same period in 2022. And although Mexico’s share of US merchandise imports dipped slightly relative to China’s in September, it remained well ahead on a 12-month rolling average basis. Calls to eliminate trade deficits by applying across-the-board 10-percent tariffs – growing louder on the campaign trail ahead of the 2024...

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Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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RBA: it ain’t over till it’s over

After sitting on its hands since delivering a rate rise in early-June, the RBA has seen enough to think that its policy settings weren’t ‘restrictive’ enough to get inflation back down to the 2-3% target band in the desired time. At today’s meeting the RBA Board, under the stewardship of new Governor Bullock, raised interest rates by another 25bps. This has taken the cash rate up to 4.35%, its highest level since November 2011. Today’s move has taken the cumulative tightening delivered to 425bps, by far the most abrupt RBA hiking cycle in several decades. According to the RBA, inflation...

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