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26 Oct 2023

26 Oct 2023

Push & pull forces

• Market vol. Equities lower as earnings disappoint. US yields reverse despite robust US GDP as inflation pressures ease. Oil lower in spite of Middle East tensions.• USD trends. Lower yields took some of the heat out of the USD. US economic strength boosted the USD recently. But was Q3 as good as it gets?• AUD pulse. AUD traded in a ~2% range this week. Q3 CPI supports the case for another RBA hike. Yield spreads shifting in favour of a higher AUD. Financial market gyrations are continuing, though overnight not all asset classes reacted uniformly. The slide in equities...

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26 Oct 2023

Wrong in all the right ways

“An economist,” said Laurence J. Peter*, “is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”. Currency strategists are similar, but it usually takes only a few minutes to see our predictions go completely wrong. We’re not aware of anyone (economist or otherwise) who accurately forecast this morning’s 4.9-percent surge in third quarter gross domestic product back in July, yet we feel relatively confident in thinking that this outperformance won’t be repeated – and may even reverse – over the final three months of the year. Consumer spending growth through the summer months appears...

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26 Oct 2023

US growth doubles in third quarter as inflation subsides, positioning economy for soft landing

The American economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, delivering booming growth even as soaring yields raised borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.  Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the economy expanding 4.9 percent in the July-through-September period, topping market consensus around 4.5 percent, and nearing the estimates provided by the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s nowcasting model.  Personal consumption surged 4 percent, marking the fastest pace since 2021 after rising just 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Residential investment broke a long series of losses in adding 0.15 percent, while non-residential fixed investment fell...

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26 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

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