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24 Oct 2023

CPI keeps the pressure on the RBA

The Q3 Australian CPI report positively surprised, further opening the door to another 25bp rate rise by the RBA as soon as the 7 November meeting. While base-effects as last year’s larger price increases rolled out of calculation, pushed annual CPI lower (headline CPI decelerated to 5.4%pa and trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge) slowed to 5.2%pa), the underlying inflation pulse remains quite strong. The pull-back in annual inflation was less than anticipated, and quarterly growth stepped up with headline and core CPI both rising by 1.2%qoq. This was above the markets forecast and well north of the...

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Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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Treasury Bill jawboning triggers tumble

Global interest rate benchmarks and the US dollar are sharply lower after a remarkably-turbulent short-covering rally saw the ten-year Treasury yield fall from above 5 percent to 4.84 percent during yesterday’s session. We hesitate to ascribe price action to investors talking their books, but the move appeared to kick off when Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said he’d unwound his bet against US government bonds, and gained steam on comments from “bond king” Bill Gross, who wrote that he had begun buying short-dated interest-rate futures to harness an expected downturn by year end. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger...

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