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19 Oct 2023

19 Oct 2023

US Fed still proceeding carefully

• Market divergence. Equities under pressure, oil & gold higher. Long end yields rose, but the US 2yr rate fell as Fed rate hike bets were pared back.• Fed speak. Chair Powell reiterated his ‘cautious’ stance, disappointing recently built up expectations. The USD lost some ground after he spoke.• AUD vol. AUD has traded in a ~1% range. AU jobs data mixed, but conditions still tight. CPI next week. This could make or break the case for another RBA hike. Markets continue to be whipped around with Middle East developments, equity earnings results, and comments by US Fed Chair Powell...

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19 Oct 2023

US yields keep climbing, squeezing currency markets

A renewed surge in US yields is sucking the air out of global financial markets this morning, putting equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies deep in the red. With yields on ten-year Treasuries flirting with the 5 percent threshold for the first time since before the global financial crisis and rate differentials tilted firmly in the dollar’s favour, the greenback is crushing its major rivals, pushing further into overbought territory. The Israel-Hamas conflict continues to pose a threat to markets, but safe-haven flows are generally subsiding as the perceived risk of a regional escalation falls. Momentum is fading in gold and...

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