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18 Oct 2023

18 Oct 2023

Will Fed Chair Powell change his tune?

• Shaky sentiment. Renewed market wobbles as Middle East tensions were compounded by higher bond yields. Stocks fell & the USD was a little firmer.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around. Gains on the back of the better than expected China data & ‘hawkish’ tone from the RBA unwound overnight.• Upcoming events. AU jobs report released today. US jobless claims are due tonight, but more focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Some renewed wobbles in markets overnight with Middle East tensions compounded by another move up in bond yields. Stocks retreated (US S&P500 -1.3%), while oil (WTI...

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18 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions worsen, supporting safe havens

Markets are back in risk-off mode after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza shifted the calculus around President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, and raised the risk of a wider conflagration. Oil prices are rising as Iran calls for an embargo against Israel, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, and the dollar is maintaining altitude. Flight-to-safety flows are likely to subside through the session, but Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since 2006 after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number raised the likelihood of more monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Cumulative futures-implied odds...

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18 Oct 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP – the tide is turning

The AUD and financial markets have been on a wild ride over recent weeks. Risk sentiment is waxing and waning on the back of the unfolding developments in the Middle East, and as markets grapple with lingering inflation risks and moderating growth. While some further near-term AUD volatility and weakness could occur if the Middle East conflict worsened and risk appetite deteriorated, in the main, we believe a lot of negatives are now already reflected in the AUD price (see Market Musings: AUD: Always darkest before the dawn). Market positioning metrics such as CFTC futures contracts are already quite bearish...

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