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26 Sep 2023

26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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26 Sep 2023

Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum

Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand. Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot and press conference remain in play – which marks a contrast with the earlier part of the year, when markets repeatedly faded Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message. A number of factors may have led to...

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