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20 Sep 2023

20 Sep 2023

Fed ‘hawkish hold’

• Fed volatility. Fed delivered a ‘hawkish hold’. No policy change, but the projected 2024 easing cycle was pared back. US yields & USD rebounded.• Higher for longer. Markets already look to be factoring in a ‘higher for longer’ view. Interest rate pricing remains above the Fed’s updated dots.• AUD round trip. A bit of volatility, but on net the AUD is little changed. AUD has picked up against GBP ahead of tonight’s BoE meeting. Markets endured some volatility overnight with moves in the lead up to the US Fed meeting reversing after the fact. Heading into the announcement, US...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed maintains near-term hawkish bias, telegraphs slower pivot in 2024

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates at a 22-year high this afternoon, kept at least one more hike on the table, and signalled it would likely cut three times next year – not the four previously envisioned. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent – the highest since 2001, with no dissents in favour of lifting or cutting the rate. In the statement setting out the decision, policymakers emphasized signs of resilience – pointing...

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20 Sep 2023

Compromising positions

Ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting, we note that speculators have sharply reduced short positions against the dollar in the last month, with the capitulation coming after a series of stronger-than-expected data releases widened expected performance gaps between the United States and the rest of the global economy. Friday’s numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net dollar position on the verge of flipping into bullish territory, with long trades on the euro tumbling sharply relative to levels earlier in the year. The net non-commercial futures position on the dollar against the G10 currencies plus the Mexican...

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20 Sep 2023

Pound stumbles, dollar steadies into Fed decision

Participants across the equity, fixed income, and currency markets are holding their collective breath this morning, with many waiting for this afternoon’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve to provide clarity before adjusting positions. Stock markets are setting up for a steady open, 2- and 10-year Treasury yields are virtually unmoved, and the dollar is little changed. Oil benchmarks are giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Prices rose significantly less than expected in the UK last month, giving the Bank of England some breathing room ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision. Numbers published by the Office for National Statistics this morning...

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