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01 Sep 2023

01 Sep 2023

Markets leap higher on weakening payrolls growth

Goldilocks is enjoying her just-right porridge this morning after a US payrolls report pointed to a gradual easing in labour market conditions, supporting expectations for an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. North America The US economy added 187,000 new non-farm jobs last month, marking the third consecutive month of gains below 200,000, and helping bolster bets on an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate jumped off historic lows to 3.8 percent in August, up from 3.5 percent in the previous month’s print (but we note that...

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01 Sep 2023

CAD

Canada’s economy showed clear signs of deceleration in the third quarter, reducing market-implied odds on further rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Although inflation measures remain sticky and above the central bank’s target range, excess demand is clearly ebbing, and labour market tightness is beginning to ease. Conditions will likely worsen in the months ahead as the early autumn surge in global borrowing costs inflicts pain on one of the world’s most deeply over-leveraged private sectors hard, and we expect rate differentials to tilt more firmly against Canada into early 2024, offsetting commodity price gains and a generalized dollar...

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