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28 Aug 2023

28 Aug 2023

US labour market trends in focus

• Equities higher. Yesterday’s lift in Asian equities flowed through to other markets. The S&P500 rose, while US bond yields eased & the USD consolidated.• AU retail. Australian retail sales exceeded expectations, with spending related to the women’s World Cup supportive. AUD a bit firmer.• US data in focus. There is a string of US labour market releases over the next few days. Will the US’ relative economic strength continue? At the start of a week jam-packed with important economic data, particularly in the US, equities have risen over the past 24hrs while US bond yields have eased, and the...

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28 Aug 2023

Lack of forward guidance from Jackson Hole leaves markets relatively unmoved

The dollar is trading below levels that prevailed ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole. Although markets (briefly) appeared to think otherwise, we read the speech as coming in slightly more dovish than expectations, with repeated use of the phrase “proceed carefully” helping put the central bank on a data-dependent footing into the autumn months. Most major equity indices are up and Treasury yields are slightly lower on an essentially-unchanged monetary policy outlook for the US and the euro area. Commodity-linked currencies are recovering from a short-lived rally that unfolded when China launched half-hearted attempts...

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