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24 Jul 2023

24 Jul 2023

Diverging growth trends

• European growth. EUR lower after Eurozone PMIs underwhelm. The shift in relative yield differentials supported the USD.• China Politburo. The leadership acknowledged the “difficulties”, & while it signaled it may inject fresh stimulus, no concrete measures were unveiled.• AUD events. Australia Q2 CPI due tomorrow, with the US Fed rate announcement & Chair Powell’s press conference on Thursday morning. Mixed performance across markets overnight, with divergence in the US and European business PMI data in focus. The impact of the rapid-fire policy tightening is bubbling to the surface. In Europe, falls in the PMI suggest growth momentum has slowed...

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24 Jul 2023

Euro tumbles on weaker private-sector outlook, rate differentials tilt back toward the dollar

It won’t have the self-aware irony of Oppenheimer or the apocalyptic scenes of the Barbie movie, but the week ahead should provide plenty of entertainment for currency market participants. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are each expected to raise rates by a quarter point and the Bank of Japan is seen holding pat, but markets could move dramatically if policymakers deliver consensus-busting guidance on their future intentions. The dollar is building on last week’s gains relative to its biggest rivals after a raft of European purchasing manager indices provided clear evidence of a profound slowdown, and global yields are coming...

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