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23 May 2023

23 May 2023

US debt ceiling: deal or no deal?

• US debt ceiling. Lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. US equities fell overnight and the USD added to its recent gains.• Two-speed economy. Manufacturing PMIs in ‘contractionary’ territory, while services remain robust. The former is a negative for commodity demand & the AUD.• RBNZ in focus. Another RBNZ hike expected today. The debate is around how big it could be (25bps or 50bps)? AUD/NZD is sub 1.06. US debt ceiling negotiations continue to hog the headlines and the lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. Equity markets lost ground with the US S&P500 falling by 1.1%....

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23 May 2023

Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1 The Treasury is running out of cash. Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD Exhibit 2 Market distortions are emerging. May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, % Exhibit 3 UK prices are set to roll over. Annual change in consumer price indices, % Exhibit 4 The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed. Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020 Exhibit 5 Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro. Citi Economic Surprise Indices Exhibit 6 And gains are starting to unwind. Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from...

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23 May 2023

Markets count down to debt ceiling deal

Markets are stuck in a state of suspended animation after President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy emerged from last night’s talks without a deal to raise the US debt ceiling. According to Biden, the two leaders agreed that a “default is off the table,” and McCarthy said “The tone tonight was better than any other time we have had discussions”. McCarthy called the talks “productive” but said “we don’t have an agreement yet,” with both noting that differences over tax changes were lengthening the standoff. An earlier statement from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we estimate that it is highly likely...

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