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16 May 2023

US retail spending and Canadian inflation data point to stubbornly-robust demand

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but consumer demand remained strong, keeping recessionary fears at bay and helping support yields across the front end of the curve.  According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in April, up 0.2 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.8 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -0.8 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.4 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.6 percent, and...

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Trading ranges shrink ahead of action-packed day

Currency markets are seeing subdued price action this morning as participants stay sidelined in a catalyst-poor environment. Both the euro and pound are holding modest gains and the dollar is slightly weaker, with three-month implied volatility levels trading near the lowest levels in a year as monetary policy expectations crystallize and movement in the fixed income space slows to a crawl. Commodity-linked and Antipodean currencies are weaker after traders responded to softer-than-expected Chinese economic activity data by marking down demand forecasts. Last night’s official data showed industrial output in the world’s second largest economy expanding 5.6 percent in April from a year...

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