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14 May 2023

Higher inflation expectations are a worry for the US Fed

• US inflation worries. Jump in US inflation expectations should catch the US Fed’s eye. Market pricing for multiple Fed rate cuts looks misplaced.• USD rebound. Higher yields supported the USD. US retail sales & Fed speakers in focus this week. Reduction in Fed rate cut pricing should be USD positive.• AUD slips back. The AUD has extended its slide. Local and offshore data should generate AUD vol. On net, we think the AUD can fall back further. Markets nervousness continued into the end of last week, with growth concerns, higher US inflation expectations, and US debt ceiling worries weighing...

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