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USD

Fed Signals One Cut in 2024, Down From Three

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a seventh consecutive meeting this afternoon, but slashed the number of cuts expected this year from three to one – disappointing market participants expecting a more dovish outlook. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee repeated a sentence warning that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. A sentence that previously complained of a “lack of further progress”...

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US Inflation Decelerates Sharply, Bolstering Rate Cut Odds

Consumer price growth slowed more than expected in the United States last month, setting the stage for a more dovish set of communications from the Federal Reserve when it releases its latest decision this afternoon. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.4 percent in May from the same period last year, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This undershot consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set at 3.5...

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Markets Settle Into Wait-and-See Mode

The dollar continues to grind higher as traders stick to safe positions ahead of today’s inflation print and Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are essentially flat, commodity prices are inching lower, and most major currency pairs are treading water. This morning’s consumer inflation report is expected to show price growth cooling, giving Fed officials a modicum of reassurance as they plot a more cautious easing cycle ahead. Economists polled by the major data providers expect headline inflation to have risen 0.1 percent in May, slower than the 0.3 percent pace in the month before, with the core measure holding at...

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US CPI & Fed in focus

• Data & politics. European political concerns have weighed on the EUR. This & positive US jobs data at the end of last week have supported the USD.• US events. US CPI & Fed meeting in focus tonight. US core inflation forecast to slow & while the Fed should project few cuts this may already be priced in.• AUD cross-currents. European issues have boosted AUD/EUR. Positive US CPI signs & the Fed failing to exceed ‘hawkish’ expectations may help AUD. Economic and political developments in the US and Europe have shaken up markets over the past few sessions. The better-than-expected...

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Safe Haven Demand Rises

The dollar is advancing for a fourth session and Treasury yields are coming under pressure as uncertainty surrounding European political upheaval intersects with broader concerns over US policy direction heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker session and risk-proxy currencies like the Canadian dollar are drifting lower. The British pound is trading with a weaker bias after a softer-than-expected labour report helped firm odds on an easing in monetary policy by the autumn. According to the Office for National Statistics, unemployment climbed to a two-and-a-half year high at...

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