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USD

04 Oct 2024

Payrolls Smash Forecasts, Propelling Dollar Higher

The US job creation engine snapped back into high gear in September, crushing odds on a second outsized rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 254,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 150,000 consensus forecast, and revisions to the July and August prints saw them rise by a combined 72,000 positions. Wage gains remained remarkably strong, pointing to an improvement in worker bargaining power. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, down slightly from 0.5 percent in the prior month, and were up 4 percent year-over-year....

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04 Oct 2024

Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom

Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing after the biggest weekly advance in six months, Treasury yields are steady, and North American equity futures are flat Uncertainty is high. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 150,000 jobs last month – a pace that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent – but forecasts are widely dispersed, from 70,000 on the low end to 225,000 on the high end. A surprise could radically reshape expectations for November’s Federal...

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03 Oct 2024

Middle East nerves

• Oil spike. Comments by US President Biden relating to the Middle East conflict pushed up oil. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD a bit lower.• GBP weaker. Dovish BoE rhetoric weighed on GBP. AUD/GBP near levels last traded in mid-July. AUD/NZD higher ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs conditions are cooling may see the USD reverse course, but a lot will depend on geopolitics. Cautious trade across risk assets continued overnight. Nervousness about the situation in the Middle East remains with oil prices spiking ~5% higher on fears facilities in...

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03 Oct 2024

Dollar Keeps Climbing the ‘Wall of Worry’

The dollar is holding near a two-week high, boosted by safe haven demand and a diminishing sense of conviction in a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Oil prices are still grinding higher as investors await an expected Israeli retaliation for Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack, and risk appetite remains suppressed across the financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are sitting on circa-1.5-percent gains, North American equity markets are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is the only major currency sitting on gains for the last day. Incoming...

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02 Oct 2024

Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode

Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage to infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated, Treasuries are in demand, and the dollar is holding its gains after the attack triggered a flight to safety – but trading ranges are narrowing, and price action could easily reverse if the geopolitical escalatory cycle shows signs of slowing in the days ahead. The threat of a retaliatory attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could keep prices somewhat elevated, but the risk of a sustained...

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