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USD

12 Mar 2025

Tariffs & inflation

• Improved sentiment. After a difficult spell risk appetite improved a little overnight. US equities rose, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. After the US confirmed tariffs on steel & aluminium imports the EU unveiled countermeasures. Canada also announced more steps.• US CPI. Inflation cooled in the US. This supported risk markets. But the data doesn’t yet capture impacts from higher duties on US imports. Global Trends Global trade tensions remain an underlying focus for markets, but despite more tit-for-tat moves over the past 24hrs fragile risk sentiment improved a little after data showed US...

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09 Mar 2025

EUR upswing continues

• US jobs. Lukewarm US jobs report didn’t stir the market pot. US equities rose, as did bond yields. EUR extended its upswing. AUD drifted back.• EUR strength. Prospect of more EU fiscal spending is supporting the EUR. AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP down near multi-year lows. Is too much priced in?• Event Radar. US CPI (Weds) due. Bank of Canada (Weds night) expected to cut rates again. News about US tariffs & EU fiscal spending also likely. Global Trends After a volatile spell, particularly in European assets, last week ended without any new significant market ructions. The monthly US jobs report...

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07 Mar 2025

Trade War Nerves Offset Stale Jobs Reports

Markets have joined economists in thinking that trade wars really aren’t good, or easy to win. After weeks of dizzying changes in US tariff policies, the S&P 500 is down 7 percent from all-time highs, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the dollar is down against all of its major counterparts—despite this morning’s relatively-stable non-farm payrolls report. In the latest development, Donald Trump yesterday said he would pause tariffs on goods that comply with the North American free trade pact negotiated during his first tour in office—just two days after he imposed near-universal 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico....

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06 Mar 2025

Policy uncertainty

• Mixed markets. US equities fell. ECB cut rates but gave off ‘hawkish’ vibes. EUR holds onto recent gains. AUD up near its 4-month average.• Push/pull. US tariff news still evolving. Pres. Trump announced temporary exemptions on some imports from Mexico & Canada. The art of the deal?• US jobs. Monthly US jobs report due tonight. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks on the outlook. These events could spark more USD volatility. Global Trends Markets continue to be whipped around by geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In the US, tariff news is still evolving. US President Trump announced that goods from...

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06 Mar 2025

Peso Jumps As Trump Pauses Tariffs on Mexico

The peso is surging after Donald Trump announced another pause in tariffs on Mexico—only three days after putting them in place. In a post on his social media platform, the president said, “After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd. I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum. Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of...

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