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‘Perfect storm’ boosts currencies and risk assets

A confluence of positive catalysts is lifting risk-sensitive currencies and asset prices this morning. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut and bring its quantitative-tightening programme to an end this afternoon. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is weighing a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, and market sentiment has been further buoyed by gains in the world’s most valuable company after Trump said he would discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell artificial-intelligence chips with Xi Jinping at their meeting tomorrow. Equity futures are climbing ahead of the open, ten-year Treasury yields are anchored below the...

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AUD: worrisome inflation trends

So much for the inflation dragon being slayed. The Q3 Australian CPI data was a jolt to the system. Headline inflation rose 1.3% in Q3 to be 3.2% higher compared to a year ago, while the trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred gauge which gives a better guide to inflation persistence) rose 1% in the quarter or 3%pa. Inflation momentum has turned up with 3-month and 6-month annualised run-rates at levels that haven’t been seen since H1 2024 (chart 1). On our figuring a slightly greater share of the CPI basket is also rising by 3%pa or more. The Q3 CPI...

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Australian inflation on the radar

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...

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Trade optimism boosts major currencies against the dollar

Global financial markets are starting the week on a buoyant note, with risk-sensitive assets climbing amid hopes of a more lasting thaw in US-China trade relations. The dollar is retreating, benchmark Treasury yields are pushing lower, and equity futures are rising after negotiators on both sides said they had made significant progress on issues including tariffs, fees, and export controls in the weekend’s bilateral discussions in Kuala Lumpur. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that a “very successful framework” had been established ahead of this week’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping. The Canadian dollar is—somewhat counter-intuitively—pushing higher even after...

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Positive risk vibes

• Upbeat tone. Softer US inflation, solid PMIs & positive US/China trade talks support risk sentiment. Equities rose. AUD & NZD strengthen.• US Fed. Upside US inflation risks fading while downside jobs risks rising. US Fed looks set to cut rates this week & should keep door open to more.• AU inflation. Gov. Bullock speaks tonight, Q3 CPI due Weds. Monthly data points to uptick in Q3 inflation. RBA rate cut pricing may be pared back. Global Trends A combination of factors underpinned risk sentiment at the end of last week and in this morning’s early Asian trade. US and...

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