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US Inflation Subsides and Canadian Economy Flatlines

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in August and personal spending missed expectations, helping bolster bets on a second consecutive oversized rate cut at the central bank’s November meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.1 percent from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.2 percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth rose to 2.7 percent, aligning with economist estimates as base effects shifted comparisons. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.1 percent relative to the prior month, and...

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Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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Ebullience Returns

A sense of optimism is powering financial markets forward this morning, with China promising more economic stimulus, a raft of Federal Reserve speakers likely to deliver relatively-dovish messages in the hours to come, and reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil production. Treasuries are flat, equity futures are pointing higher ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, with the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all eking out half-percentage point gains relative to yesterday’s close. In a highly unusual September announcement, the Chinese politburo said it would mobilise “necessary fiscal...

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Two steps forward, one step back

• Shaky sentiment. After a strong run equities slipped overnight. Bond yields rose & the USD clawed back ground. AUD & NZD dipped.• AU CPI. Monthly headline CPI indicator decelerated as government measures washed through. But progress on core/services inflation is more gradual.• Event radar. Several US Fed members speak tonight. US jobless claims & durable goods released. Locally, RBA’s FSR & job vacancies are due. After a strong run the positive risk sentiment that has washed through markets reversed course slightly over the past 24hrs. There has been little top-tier economic data released globally, and although geopolitical tensions in...

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China-Administered Sugar Rush Fades

The greenback is holding near an eight-month low as the impact of yesterday’s Chinese stimulus announcement dissipates and an unexpectedly-extreme fall in US consumer sentiment takes a toll on risk appetite. Equity market futures are setting up for a softer open and front-end Treasury yields are pushing slightly lower, even as long-term rates continue their ascendance. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tumbled by the most in three years in September. The headline index dropped 6.9 points to 98.7, well below economist estimates, as households reported a deterioration in current conditions and turned more pessimistic on the future. The share...

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