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USD

29 Jul 2024

Currency Markets Stabilise as Traders Brace for Heavy Week

Markets are holding steady ahead of a week full of potential volatility landmines: central bankers in Tokyo, Washington and London will deliver rate decisions, four of the ‘magnificent seven’ technology companies – Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft – will release earnings, the euro area will publish an inflation update, and a critical US non-farm payrolls report will cap things off before the August doldrums set in. The dollar is edging higher, Treasury yields are slumping, and equity futures are setting up for a second day of gains after last week’s steep stock market selloff. Investors remain unwilling to take short...

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28 Jul 2024

Push & pull factors

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment. Equities rebound. Bond yields lower. Backdrop helps the AUD claw back a little lost ground.• Volatility bursts. It is a jam-packed week of events. We think more market volatility is likely as the macro cross-currents wash through.• Event radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). BoJ (Weds), BoE & US Fed (both Thurs) meet. US payrolls are released (Fri), as is the China PMI & EZ CPI (Weds). After a challenging spell risk sentiment improved a bit at the end of last week. European and US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 up over...

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26 Jul 2024

Unsurprising US Inflation Print Leaves Markets in Consolidation Mode

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed incrementally as expected in June, leaving monetary policy expectations unchanged across the financial markets. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent (0.182 unrounded) from the prior month, matching market forecasts for a modest acceleration from May’s 0.1-percent (0.127 unrounded) print. On a year over year basis, core price growth held at 2.6 percent, the same as in May, slightly above economist estimates.  The overall personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.1 percent relative to the prior month, up 2.5 percent from...

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26 Jul 2024

Fear Eases As US Economy Accelerates

A safe-haven bid in foreign exchange markets appears to be fading this morning, with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc losing altitude as downward pressure on risk-sensitive asset classes begins to ease. The dollar’s gains are slowing, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are setting up for a positive open after a paroxysm of selling saw major indices suffer their biggest losses in more than two years during Wednesday’s session. High-yielding currencies are climbing as carry trade flows hesitantly return, and risk proxies — like the Canadian and Australian dollars — are advancing on a generalised basis. Yesterday’s...

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25 Jul 2024

Yen trends

• Mixed markets. Equities dip again & while long-end yields declined base metal & energy prices ticked up. USD consolidates but AUD still under pressure.• US data. Q2 US GDP higher than predicted. But forward indicators suggest this is a false dawn. US PCE deflator due tonight. US Fed meets next week.• JPY trends. JPY’s sharp rebound has been a factor weighing on the AUD. Q2 Australian CPI released next week. Will this help the AUD recover? Negative vibes across risk assets have generally continued, though there were a few positive signs starting to emerge. Q2 US GDP was the...

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