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USD

Dollar Retreats As Fed Pricing Shifts

Volatility is reverting lower across the financial markets, even as investors swerve between opposing viewpoints on what the Federal Reserve will do next week. The dollar is back on the defensive, Treasury yields are slipping, equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, and oil prices are climbing. Odds on an outsized kickoff to the central bank’s easing cycle climbed yesterday after the Wall Street Journal’s ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos summarised the current debate on the rate-setting committee in terms that seemed to favour a larger move. Referencing conversations with current and former officials, Timiraos said “The case for...

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Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace

Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session. August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but a surprise monthly acceleration in the core measure spooked investors, triggering a surge in the dollar and a rout in equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies. Rationality eventually returned, but odds on a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting were left near 17 percent, down sharply from 33 percent prior to the report. Longer-term repercussions seem minimal. Although expectations for a more aggressive kickoff to the Fed’s easing cycle...

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Dollar Jumps on Hotter-Than-Anticipated Core Inflation Print

Consumer price growth accelerated slightly in the United States last month, threatening to derail a more aggressive kickoff to the Federal Reserve’s imminent easing cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 0.3 percent in August from the same period last year, and climbed 3.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly above the monthly consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which had been set at 0.2 percent. On a headline...

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Dollar Retreats as Trump’s Odds Slip

Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities. The greenback is reversing its three-day rally, short-end Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are retreating ahead of the open. In related news, Harris managed to flip prediction market odds in her favour during a televised debate with former president Donald Trump. Economic policy details were limited, and neither of the candidates managed to land a knockout blow big enough to decide the race,...

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USD bouncing back

• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range. USD has recovered some ground, while the NZD & AUD have lost altitude.• Event radar. US Pres. debate (Weds), US CPI (Weds), & ECB meeting (Thurs) in focus this week. Will the USD’s revival continue? Markets have enjoyed a relatively more positive start to the week as the dust settled following Friday nights US jobs report and comments by Fed officials which generated further turbulence. From...

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