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24 Oct 2024

Holding steady

• Limited moves. US equities ticked up, while bond yields & the USD eased. AUD treading water just above its 1-year average.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due next week. Gov. subsidies will see headline CPI fall. But improvement in core inflation should be more limited.• US politics. US election around the corner. Chances of a Trump win have risen. But the result may not be known for days/weeks after the event. Limited moves across markets overnight, although on balance there was a slight improvement in the underlying tone. On the back of a ~22% surge in the megacap Tesla’s share...

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23 Oct 2024

Pressure building

• Negative vibes. Wobbles across risk markets with US equities slipping back overnight. Higher US yields supported the USD. AUD under pressure.• Macro trends. Bank of Canada cut rates by another 50bps. Global PMIs due today. US Fed easing expectations have been pared back.• US election. Presidential election fast approaching. Odds of a Trump win & Republican sweep on the rise. This is also boosting the USD. A few wobbles across markets overnight. Base metal and energy prices slipped back, and a selloff in tech stocks weighed on the US equity market with the NASDAQ (-1.6%) underperforming the broader S&P500...

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23 Oct 2024

Dollar’s Relentless Advance Continues

Demand for the dollar keeps climbing. With less than two weeks to go before the next Federal Reserve meeting and the US presidential election, global investors are piling into the greenback, cutting wagers on an aggressive easing cycle, and betting that the next administration’s policy mix will inflict serious damage on other major economies while generating higher levels of inflation at home. The DXY dollar index is up almost 4 percent from its late September low, options markets are pointing to a growing appetite for hedges against extreme moves around the polling date, and currencies that have strong trade links...

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22 Oct 2024

US election on the horizon

• Treading water. US equities consolidated. Yields generally ticked up. EUR & JPY softer. AUD & NZD unwind some of the falls from yesterday.• US politics. US election less than 2 weeks away. Odds of a Trump/Republican win on the rise. We don’t think the USD is fully factoring this in.• Macro events. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50bps tonight. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks in the morning. Global PMIs also due tomorrow. Most major markets have been in a bit of a holding pattern over the past few sessions given the lack of fresh top tier economic...

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22 Oct 2024

Bond Turbulence Roils Currency Markets

Bond markets continue to puke like the cast of Family Guy after drinking Ipecac*. The ten-year US Treasury yield is holding above the 4.2-percent threshold this morning – up from 3.6 percent in mid-September – after a violent bond selloff during yesterday’s session, and a widely-watched measure of Treasury yield volatility – the MOVE index – is pushing higher as traders brace for more turbulence. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. The dollar is outperforming most of its major rivals, keeping the euro and pound stuck near recent lows as rate differentials tilt in America’s favour. The yield-sensitive yen is coming...

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