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USD

14 Aug 2025

Revived US inflation fears

• US PPI. Much stronger than expected US producer prices rekindled inflation fears. US yields rose, as did the USD. AUD back below 1-month average.• AU jobs. Employment report broadly inline with forecasts. Unemployment hovering just above 4%. Supports the case for gradual RBA easing.• Data flow. China activity data due today. In the US, retail sales & industrial production out tonight. Data could generate more USD volatility. Global Trends There was a bit of a ripple across markets overnight on the back of resurfacing US inflation fears. US Producer Prices were much stronger than forecast with the 0.9% monthly...

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13 Aug 2025

Shifting Fed views

• Positive vibes. Global equities pushed higher with markets factoring in a series of US Fed rate cuts. USD softer. AUD & NZD edge a little higher.• AU jobs. Volatile employment report released today. Labour demand is cooling. Will the AU jobs data rebound or is a new (weaker) trend forming?• US data. Producer prices & jobless claims out tonight. US retail sales & import prices due Friday. US Fed expectations (& the USD) may be impacted. Global Trends There was limited top tier economic data released overnight. As a result, market sentiment was driven by a few US Fed...

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12 Aug 2025

RBA cuts, US inflation contained

• US CPI. Not as bad as feared US inflation supported sentiment overnight. US equities rose, as did US rate cut expectations. USD softer. AUD rebounded.• RBA change. RBA finally delivered another 25bp rate cut yesterday. A few more moves look to be in the pipeline based on the RBA’s new forecasts.• Data flow. AU wages out today & jobs report due tomorrow. China data released on Friday. US producer prices & retail sales on the radar later this week. Global Trends The latest read on US CPI inflation was in focus overnight and another ‘not as bad as feared’...

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12 Aug 2025

RBA: (finally) a bit more relief

After defying expectations by holding interest rates steady in July the RBA (finally) announced some more ‘relief’ for indebted households/businesses at today’s meeting. The RBA lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 3.60% with the Board voting unanimously (i.e. 9-0) in favour of the move. This is the 3rd reduction since February and was widely anticipated given the RBA noted last time that the decision to stand still was one of “timing not direction”. In our opinion, domestic inflation and labour market trends point to a further recalibration lower in interest rates towards “neutral” (which in our judgement is a...

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10 Aug 2025

RBA & US CPI on the radar

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields ticked up. Limited net moves in FX. AUD & NZD tracking above their 1-year averages.• RBA focus. After surprising by holding rates steady in July, RBA expected to cut this week. Given inflation & job trends will the RBA turn more ‘dovish’?• Event Radar. In addition to the RBA the latest jobs figures are out this week. In the US CPI inflation & retail sales are due, as is the China data batch. Global Trends A mixed performance across markets at the end of last week, with limited new news...

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