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USD

29 Apr 2025

Tariff impacts starting to show

• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further moderation in inflation supporting the case for another RBA rate cut in May.• US data. US Q1 GDP due tonight. Leading indicators point to a step down in growth. Will it be as bad as feared? Outcomes vs expectations matter. Global Trends US tariff related headlines continue to generate market gyrations with the overnight newsflow somewhat supporting demand for US financial assets. US equities rose with...

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29 Apr 2025

Easing Trade Tensions Support Dollar, Loonie Languishes on Still-Unknown Election Result

Market sentiment is holding firm this morning as earnings reports come in, the cadence of data releases increases, and trade tensions show further signs of easing. Treasury yields are holding steady, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up incrementally, and foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed basis with the dollar up against most of its major rivals including the euro and yen. The Canadian dollar is modestly lower after Mark Carney’s Liberal Party achieved a thinner-than-expected margin of victory in yesterday’s close-fought Canadian election, driving whiplash price action within an incredibly-tight trading range. As we go to print,...

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28 Apr 2025

Uneasy Calm Prevails Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Financial markets are trading sideways ahead of an information-dense trading week that will be packed with economic data releases and earnings reports – on top of the usual White House drama. The dollar is up incrementally against its major peers on hopes for a raft of symbolic trade deals, Treasury yields are holding steady, and futures on North American equity markets are edging marginally lower as investors brace for a deluge of negative guidance from US corporates;. Former central banker Mark Carney is well ahead in the polls going into today’s Canadian election, with many voters seeing him as the...

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25 Apr 2025

Dollar Strengthens On Milder Risk Backdrop

Risk appetite is returning to global financial markets this morning as investors move to price in rate cuts and traders welcome a more conciliatory tone from the Trump administration on trade and monetary independence issues. The president and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both made supportive noises on trade negotiations during yesterday’s session, and a number of Federal Reserve officials highlighted downside risks in public appearances. North American stock market futures are setting up for a modestly-lower open, but the US ten-year Treasury yield is pushing lower, and the dollar is strengthening against its safe-haven alternatives in Japan, Switzerland, and the...

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24 Apr 2025

Recovery Falters As Trade War Ceasefire Hopes Are Dashed

A nascent relief rally in markets is stalling out as hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade war unravel amid contradictory signals from officials. The dollar is coming under selling pressure once again, Treasury yields are inching lower, and equity futures are cruising toward renewed losses at the North American open. Risk appetite improved enormously yesterday morning when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was planning to reduce tariffs on China by roughly half — from 145 percent to somewhere between 50 and 65 percent — dovetailing with the president’s somewhat-conciliatory comments on Tuesday evening, when...

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