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05 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Hopes for Policy Pivot Fade, Dollar Rebounds

Hopes for a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks are getting snuffed out in markets, forcing a broad-based unwind in risk-sensitive asset classes. Treasury yields are climbing, equity futures are setting up for a weaker session after the biggest two-day gain in more than two years, commodity prices are down, and the dollar is back in fine form, clobbering its major rivals as it moves higher. The euro, pound, yen, and yuan are all sliding as as traders cut risk heading into this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and next week’s inflation data. We remain convinced...

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04 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Kick Higher on Falling Policy Forecasts

Markets are roaring into the fourth quarter as investors downgrade expectations for rate hikes from developed-market central banks. US equity futures are set for a strong open after yesterday’s rally, yields are coming down, and risk-sensitive currencies are outperforming the dollar in the foreign exchange space. Australia’s central bank surprised markets by lifting interest rates less than expected, saying “The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time. Reflecting this, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points this month as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia”....

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03 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Tiptoe Into October

With traders and investors suffering from a kind of post-traumatic stress syndrome after a brutal September, markets are cautiously edging higher this morning. North American equity indices are pointing to a stronger open, commodity benchmarks are finding their feet, and economically-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are climbing back from Friday’s selloff. The dollar is slightly softer, but remains strong after the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure showed no evidence of deceleration. According to data released on Friday, the core personal consumption expenditures deflator climbed 0.6 percent in August, suggesting that underlying price pressures continue to grow even as gasoline...

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30 Sep 2022

Market Wire: US Inflation Pressures Strengthen, Supporting Fed’s Hawkish Stance

American households kept spending last month and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed by more than expected, lifting odds on more aggressive tightening from the world’s most powerful central bank. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays climbing 0.1 percent in August. A -0.489-percent drop in spending on goods was offset by a 0.849-percent increase on the services side, suggesting that falling gas prices are helping boost spending in other areas of the economy. In unadjusted terms, personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, led by another solid 0.3 percent increase in private-sector...

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30 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Remains Strong Amid Quarter-End Rebalancing

The dollar is holding steady and Treasury yields are moving sideways as month- and quarter-end flows dominate price action in the foreign exchange markets. After an extraordinarily-tumultuous September, traders are betting the greenback’s safe haven attributes will remain in demand through early October, with other areas of the global economy suffering the repercussions of a rapid ramp in interest rates. The pound is trading above levels that prevailed before chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled his government’s tax and spending plans a week ago. The currency rallied this morning as the Bank of England bought long-term gilts and investors bet the government...

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