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Dollar Retreat Gains Momentum on Tech Sector Plunge

Futures on US stock markets are tumbling this morning as outsized performance gains from China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence start-up raise uncomfortable questions about the competitive moats surrounding America’s biggest tech firms. According to artificial intelligence experts, a thinly-resourced open-source large language model released by the Chinese company last week shows comparable performance to those built by US firms like OpenAI and Meta, suggesting that the race among Silicon Valley firms to invest tens of billions of dollars in advanced chips may not pay off—at least not for those on the vanguard. DeepSeek’s chatbot topped downloads on Apple’s App Store over...

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Easing US-China Tensions Boost Risk Appetite

Financial markets are back in risk-on mode after US President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he could avoid putting tariffs on Chinese imports, backing off a campaign pledge to hit the country with a 60-percent levy. In a previously-recorded interview with Fox News that aired in the United States last night, Trump said “We have one very big power over China, and that’s tariffs, and they don’t want them. And I’d rather not have to use it, but it’s a tremendous power over China,” also noting that he had a “great relationship” with Chinese president Xi Jinping prior to...

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Trump talk continues

• Trump talk. More comments from US President Trump overnight, but market reaction was relatively muted. Equities rose, while oil & the USD eased.• AUD & NZD. The USD pull-back is supporting AUD & NZD. Both are near the top of their respective 1-month ranges. AU CPI due next week.• BoJ hike? BoJ meets today. Another hike expected. We think the BoJ is ‘behind the curve’. Higher rates can help the JPY lift over the medium-term. Global Trends As has been the case the past few days comments by US President Trump in a virtual appearance at the World Economic...

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Calm After the Storm Settles on Currency Markets

Financial markets are enjoying a period of placidity amid a relative lack of new headline risks related to the incoming administration’s trade, immigration, and fiscal policy plans. The global borrowing cost benchmark—the ten-year US Treasury yield—is holding near 4.62 percent, down from last week’s flirtation with the 4.8-percent threshold, equity futures are inching higher, and the dollar is eking out small gains after President Trump generally avoided discussing the economy and stopped short of issuing new tariff threats in a closely-watched interview with Fox News last night. US labour markets showed signs of stabilising in recent weeks. According to data...

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US tariffs: delayed not derailed

• Trump vol. Markets were swung around by tariff news on Pres. Trump’s first day in office. But on net, equities rose while bond yields & the USD declined.• Delayed not derailed. Wide ranging reviews into US trade were announced. Findings due by 1 April. US trade tariffs still in the pipeline.• AUD & NZD. Softer USD has supported AUD & NZD. NZ headline CPI also a touch firmer than forecast. AU Q4 CPI due next week. Global Trends US President Trump’s second first day in office created a lot of buzz and generated a burst of volatility across markets....

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