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02 Nov 2022

Market Wire: Dollar Slides As Fed Pledges to Take Economic Risks “Into Account”

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised benchmark rates by 75 basis points and hinted at a more gradual tightening pace in the months ahead. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75-to-4 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller move. In a largely-unchanged official statement setting out the decision, policymakers set the stage for a more nuanced approach to setting rates, saying “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the...

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02 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Fed Decision

Good morning and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. With asset prices resembling Schrödinger’s cat – simultaneously poised for a rally or a crash – bond yields are steady and exchange rates are tightly rangebound ahead of this afternoon’s highly-anticipated announcement. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, while signalling a coming deceleration in tightening. The big question for markets is how Jerome Powell will manage the accompanying communications conundrum, somehow telling investors to expect a slower pace of rate hikes without triggering a drastic loosening in financial conditions....

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01 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Make Valiant Attempt at Rallying Into Fed Decision

Global equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are rallying this morning as rumours of an easing in China’s “covid-zero” policy spread across social media – but gains look vulnerable as official sources strenuously deny any changes are afoot. The DXY dollar index is down almost 0.6 percent and the yen – strongly correlated with the S&P 500 – is up sharply as North American traders hit their desks, suggesting that markets are setting up for a Santa Claus rally even as the outcome of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains uncertain. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped well below the 4 percent...

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31 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Traders Turn Cautious Ahead of Action-Packed Week

The greenback is climbing and the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is slipping ahead of a week that could prove pivotal in currency markets. Central banks in Australia, the US and the UK will deliver rate decisions and a slew of data releases including non-farm payrolls will be published in the coming days, helping to set market positioning into year end. Traders are buying the Brazilian real after former president Lula da Silva triumphed over Jair Bolsonaro in a closely-fought election. The currency had traded with a persistent risk discount in recent months as Mr. Bolsonaro cast aspersions on the electoral process,...

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28 Oct 2022

Market Wire: Inflation and Growth Prints Keep North American Central Banks On Course

American households kept spending last month and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure maintained its momentum, keeping the central bank on track toward a 75 basis point hike at next week’s meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays climbing 0.3 percent in September, with services spending decelerating relative to August, while vehicle and drug purchases lifted the tangible goods sector. Personal income rose 0.4 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.6 percent increase in private sector wages and salaries. The core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Federal Reserve – rose...

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