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USD

03 Jun 2025

Markets Turn Defensive

The dollar is inching off a two-year low as investors adopt a defensive posture ahead of this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, which is expected to confirm a cooling in US labour market conditions ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Mentions of layoffs on corporate earnings calls have been minimal, and unemployment claims remain well below levels that have historically signalled growing stress, but economists have drastically lowered job creation forecasts*, and market participants are bracing for an imminent slowdown. Treasury yields are slipping as traders anticipate more easing from the Federal Reserve, North American equity indices are...

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02 Jun 2025

Trade War Flare-Up Destabilises Dollar

The dollar is back on the defensive as June begins, retreating amid a worsening in trade tensions between the United States and its global counterparts. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced he would double steel tariffs to 50 percent, again raising taxes on American consumers while prompting fears of a new round of countermeasures from Canada and the European Union. China yesterday accused the US of “seriously violating” the trade ceasefire agreed in Geneva last month, noting that Washington has imposed a series of “discriminatory restrictive measures,” including restrictions on chip design software, warnings against the purchase of Huawei products,...

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01 Jun 2025

Hold the line

• Holding on. Consolidation across markets on Friday. US yields slipped back. AUD & NZD tread water. AUD near 1-month average.• Data flow. Tariff impacts starting to show. Container traffic to US slowing. Medium-term downside growth risks remain in place, in our view.• Event Radar. Q1 AU GDP due this week. ECB & BoC are meeting. A few US Fed members speak. US ISM & monthly jobs report also scheduled. Global Trends Despite a flurry of US data releases on Friday it was a quiet end to the week in markets. On net the US S&P500 was little changed over...

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30 May 2025

Sentiment Remains Weak As Tariff Fears Outweigh Still-Supportive Fundamentals

Measures of risk appetite remain soft in currency markets amid mounting concern that Donald Trump’s tariffs may prove more enduring than had been hoped. A federal appeals court yesterday granted the administration a temporary reprieve from a ruling that could have unraveled much of its trade policy, broader confidence was dented by a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the White House is weighing a stopgap strategy to keep tariffs in place, and the President later posted a social media broadside against a legal system that has frustrated his ambitions in the last week. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar remains...

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29 May 2025

Dollar Slump Continues As Appeals Court Temporarily Reinstates Trump Tariffs

A federal appeals court has temporarily paused implementation of last night’s ruling that voided President Trump’s most wide-ranging tariffs. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an order this afternoon allowing the administration to keep levies in place until it can hear the Justice Department’s challenge to the lower-court decision, saying “The judgments and the permanent injunctions entered by the Court of International Trade in these cases are temporarily stayed until further notice while this court considers the motions papers”. The plaintiffs in the cases – businesses and state officials – must now prepare briefs by June...

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