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Currency volatility falls after US inflation fails to surprise

A flurry of action after yesterday’s release of the August consumer price report ultimately left currency and fixed-income markets largely unmoved. The dollar is flat and front-end yields are edging up. Measures of implied volatility in the equity and currency markets are plumbing seasonal lows. Both the headline and core price indices accelerated somewhat as Saudi-led output cuts lifted oil prices and transportation services costs, but underlying inflation stayed at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, keeping policy expectations essentially unchanged. The central bank is still seen staying on hold next week, tightening again in November, and beginning...

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Underlying US price growth accelerates, pushing dollar higher

Last updated: 08:46 EDT Underlying US consumer inflation accelerated more than expected last month, helping ratify market expectations for at least one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.  According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in August from the same period last year, up 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was closely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs jumped 5.6 percent month-over-month as global oil prices surged.  The – arguably more important...

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Price action slows to a crawl ahead of inflation print

The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways, equity futures are slightly weaker, and long-term yields are creeping higher ahead of data that is expected to show core consumer price growth continuing to fade in the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. According to consensus expectations, month-over-month headline inflation accelerated to 0.6 percent in August as energy prices climbed, driving the all-items index to a 3.6-percent gain over last year. But core – widely considered a more reliable gauge of underlying inflation – is seen rising just 0.2 percent for a third month running, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 4.3...

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US inflation cross-currents

• Mixed signals. US equities a bit lower, bond yields mixed, while oil rose. EUR rebounded following a ‘hawkish’ news article. AUD consolidates.• US inflation. The latest US CPI report is released tonight. Headline inflation is set to jump because of oil, but core inflation is predicted to slow.• Diverging trends. Australian consumer sentiment remains low, but business conditions improved. The local jobs data is released tomorrow. Markets were generally well contained overnight as participants await tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). In bonds, the US 2yr yield drifted a bit higher (+3bps to 5.02%), while long end yields moved...

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Shock and awwww….

Oil prices have risen more than $20 from their lows earlier this year and US gasoline prices have jumped, raising fears of another seventies-style “energy shock” that weakens the economy and forces the Federal Reserve into further monetary tightening. Higher energy costs certainly could add to other factors – ebbing excess savings, student loan repayments, and slowing wage growth – in slowing consumer spending, particularly near the bottom of the US income distribution. But when we put oil prices in real terms – adjusting them for the rate of overall inflation over time – it is clear that today’s surge...

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