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USD

09 Jun 2023

Canadian Dollar Drops as Traders Question Rate Hike Sustainability

The Canadian dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing after Statistics Canada reported the first loss of jobs in nine months, suggesting that the economy was beginning to struggle with higher borrowing costs ahead of this week’s rate hike. The country lost 17,300 jobs in May and the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent as the part-time, self-employed, and services sector categories moved into contraction. The number of hours worked (sometimes a better read of underlying conditions) fell 0.4 percent month-over-month, and wages grew 5.1 percent year-over-year, down from 5.2 percent in the prior month. We think the...

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08 Jun 2023

US jobless claims weigh on the USD

• US labour data. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected. This has weighed on US bond yields and the USD. AUD is back above ~$0.67.• Fed expectations. We think the reaction to the data looks overdone. Jobless claims are volatile, and the backdrop remains a long way from where it needs to be.• Upcoming events. China CPI released today. Next week US CPI, the FOMC meeting, ECB & BoJ decisions, China data batch, & AU jobs report are due. Markets remain fickle with yesterday’s moves partially unwinding overnight. US equities rose (S&P500 +0.6%), while bond yields declined (US 2yr...

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08 Jun 2023

Canadian Central Bank Hawkishness Supports Both North American Dollars

It’s the summer of 2023, and Canada’s biggest exports are wildfire smoke and higher interest rates. Yields are up across most developed economies after the Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia in demonstrating that central bank monetary tightening cycles aren’t yet complete. Equity futures are holding steady, short-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and the dollar is holding yesterday’s against most of its major rivals. The Canadian dollar is only incrementally higher after the central bank opted to raise rates, suggesting that market conviction was low and investors were well prepared ahead of the decision – but also that...

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07 Jun 2023

Canaries in the central bank coal mine

• BoC hike. The ‘surprise’ move by the BoC has rattled markets. Bond yields have risen as markets adjust interest rate expectations.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. The shift in offshore pricing counteracts the change in RBA thinking. Q1 GDP was also weak.• Central banks. The US Fed, ECB & BoJ meet next week. Inflation is a hard nut to crack. Further upward adjustment in rates could weigh on risk sentiment. Markets came back to life overnight. Expectations that central banks have more work to do to get on top of high services/core inflation are growing....

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07 Jun 2023

Rangebound Markets Await Bank of Canada Decision

With a paucity of potential volatility catalysts on the week’s calendar, markets remain broadly rangebound this morning. Equity futures are inching down ahead of the opening bell, Treasury yields are practically unchanged, and the dollar’s recent gains are fading relative to the euro and pound. Chinese exports fell dramatically in May, suggesting that a long-expected post-pandemic drop in Western goods demand is taking a toll on the world’s second-largest economy. According to data released by the Customs Bureau last night, exports fell -7.5 percent year-over-year in May, well beyond the -0.4 percent consensus, and the worst print since January. The country nonetheless...

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