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New Trump Tariff Threat Punches Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are spiralling lower this afternoon after US president Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would follow through with imposing 25-percent tariffs on the two countries in retaliation for allowing fentanyl smuggling across their borders. According to some reports, Trump also suggested that he will make a determination on whether oil imports will be covered “this evening”. The story is still developing, and is clearly triggering stops across currency markets, but may not have staying power: we would caution market participants against overreacting, and will again reiterate our view that tariffs...

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Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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Inflation & the AUD

• Central banks. Another rate cut by the BoC & Riksbank, although forward guidance was removed. US Fed kept rates steady & signaled patience.• Modest moves. Mixed performance across equities. Bond yields ticked up. USD tread water. ECB expected to cut rates tonight. US GDP also released.• AU CPI. Core inflation slowed bolstering expectations for a February RBA rate cut. A rates recalibration is looming, but is the low AUD already factoring this in? Global Trends There were few data releases overnight and no new news regarding President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly around tariffs. Rather, central banks were in the...

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Price Action Slows in Run-Up to Rate Decisions

The dollar is advancing against most of its peers and financial markets are broadly holding steady ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. The world’s most powerful central bank is almost-universally expected to stay on hold—and the accompanying statement should remain essentially unchanged—but Chair Jerome Powell’s words in the post-decision press conference will be closely scrutinised for hints as to whether a rate cut could come at the March meeting. Yields have retreated from their recent highs, driven by a modest softening in incoming survey data, market turmoil, relatively-dovish rhetoric from Fed officials, and a rush among investors to top-tick...

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RBA rate relief & the AUD

Favourable trends in Australian inflation mean interest rate relief for indebted households and businesses is on the horizon. Q4 2024 CPI printed below consensus forecasts (as it has tended to do over the past two years), and importantly it also undershot the RBA’s projections. Headline inflation rose just 0.2% in Q4 with the annual rate running at 2.4%pa. The trimmed mean (i.e. the RBA’s preferred underlying metric that provides a guide to inflation persistence) came in at 0.5%qoq. As a result, core inflation decelerated to 3.2%pa, with 6-month annualised growth, a gauge of the pulse rate trajectory, stepping down to...

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