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USD

Price Action Eases As Data Deluge Slows

Price action in financial markets looks remarkably muted this morning as shell-shocked investors stay sidelined against a quiet data backdrop. The dollar is inching higher amid thin trading volumes, most major pairs are within 0.2 percentage points of yesterday’s close, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is less than a basis point higher, and North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Currency traders yawned when Donald Trump issued a new round of tariff threats last night, this time promising to hit automotive imports, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors with taxes “in the neighbourhood” of 25 percent. “It’ll go very...

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RBA rate relief

• RBA relief. As anticipated RBA cut rates yesterday. But was ‘hawkish’ in terms of future moves. Data will drive the RBA’s decisions. AUD near 2-month highs.• RBNZ today. RBNZ expected to cut rates by 50bps for the 3rd straight meeting today. But will it signal a more measured approach from here?• Global trends. Bond yields rose & USD ticked up overnight. UK wages & Canadian CPI surprised to the upside. Global inflation risks remain. Global Trends Market moves have been modest overnight despite a few geopolitical and macro developments hitting the wires. In terms of geopolitics officials from the...

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Dollar Licks Its Wounds As Inflation Accelerates Slightly in Canada

The dollar is advancing incrementally against its major rivals this morning after suffering extensive losses in the last two weeks on a softening in US economic data and a reversal in bets on Donald Trump’s trade plans. A disappointing payrolls report, several noisy but ultimately calming inflation prints, evidence of a slowing in consumer spending, and a less-aggressive-than-feared reciprocal tariff announcement on Thursday helped bring yields down in the last week and a half, and—despite a small advance overnight—the greenback is now down roughly three quarters of a percentage point in trade-weighted terms. Canadian headline and core inflation measures accelerated...

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Will the RBA ease the monetary squeeze?

• European moves. Prospect of more EU defence spending boosted regional equities & bond yields. GBP & JPY firmer. AUD & NZD drift a bit higher.• RBA today. Will the RBA ease some of the monetary squeeze? Markets think so. A 25bp interest rate cut is assigned a ~90% chance.• AUD trends. AUD at levels last traded in mid-Dec. Outcomes compared to expectations drive markets. Is the RBA easing cycle already baked in? Global Trends Given the US President’s Day holiday there wasn’t a lot of volatility overnight. The economic newsflow was light, though European markets did react to US...

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USD on the backfoot

• US macro. Weak US retail sales weighed on bond yields & the USD on Friday. AUD & NZD extend respective rebounds. US holiday today.• Central banks. Markets expecting another 50bp RBNZ rate cut with a 25bp move by the RBA anticipated. Have easing cycles already been priced in?• Event Radar. In addition to the RBA (Tues) & RBNZ (Weds), AU jobs report also due (Thurs). Global PMIs scheduled (Fri). US Fed members speaking. Global Trends US economic data was the market driver on Friday night with no fresh geopolitical or tariff-related headlines coming through which moved the dial. US...

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