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29 Feb 2024

Investors Heave Sigh of Relief As Worst Fears Go Unrealized

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated in January, helping further ratify the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.4 percent in January from the prior month, bringing the three-month annualized pace up to 2.6 percent – still within the central bank’s target range but headed in the wrong direction. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth slowing to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent prior, closely aligning with consensus estimates.  The overall personal consumption expenditures index...

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29 Feb 2024

Markets Brace for US Inflation Print

Happy Leap Day to all who celebrate. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer price growth – and therefore the world’s most important inflation yardstick – set for release in less than half an hour, global markets are holding their collective breath. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is thought to have doubled to 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January, with the gain flagged in advance by stronger-than-forecast increases in consumer and producer price indices. Ten-year Treasury yields are sitting near 4.31 percent, up a little over 4 basis points, equity futures are seeing incremental losses ahead of...

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28 Feb 2024

Antipodean FX underperformance

• Negative vibes. A slightly more bearish tone ahead of tonight’s US PCE deflator data. Equities & bond yields a bit lower. AUD & NZD underperform.• RBNZ holds. RBNZ clipped the markets hawkish wings. Rates held steady & odds of another hike were watered down. NZD fell. This dragged on the AUD.• AU CPI. Headline inflation failed to re-accelerate in January. But there was little new info on services prices. AU retail sales released today. A slightly more bearish tone across markets overnight as traders gear up for the release of the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation...

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28 Feb 2024

Dollar Gains on Subdued Risk Appetite 

Good morning. The dollar is gaining strength before the North American open, bolstered by a broad-based worsening in risk appetite as investors lower expectations for how much the Federal Reserve is likely to lower rates. Equity futures are suffering losses in premarket trading, Treasury yields are steady, and both major oil benchmarks are slipping as US inventories continue to build. Economists expect a small downward revision in fourth quarter gross domestic product when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes updated numbers this morning. The first iteration pointed to the economy expanding at a 3.3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate, but...

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27 Feb 2024

Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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