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USD

06 May 2024

A ‘hawkish’ turn from the RBA?

• Holding on. Quiet start to the week. US equities & base metals firmer. Long-end yields a bit lower, while the USD & AUD consolidated.• Fed survey. The Fed’s latest lending survey shows credit conditions are still ‘tight’. This can crimp lending & US growth over time, bringing on rate cuts.• RBA meeting. RBA in focus today. Rates pricing has adjusted higher. Will the RBA match the markets thinking? If not, the AUD could fall back. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets. This is unsurprising given the light event calendar. Last week’s moves stemming from...

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06 May 2024

Dollar Momentum Fades As Rate Cuts Return

The dollar is beginning the new week on a defensive footing after Friday’s non-farm payrolls print helped resuscitate hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are flat, North American equity bourses are pointing to a supportive open, and currency markets are seeing a second day of broad-based risk-taking. The April jobs report showed labour market conditions easing, but remaining extremely tight. Employers added 175,000 positions, down from an upwardly-revised 315,000-job print in the prior month. The unemployment rate rose an almost indiscernible 0.03 percent, climbing from 3.83 to 3.86 percent, and marking the 27th consecutive month below...

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05 May 2024

Softer US data pressures the USD

• Positive vibes. A weaker US jobs report & ISM services data exerted more pressure on US yields & the USD. The AUD’s revival continued.• RBA meeting. Australian interest rate pricing has adjusted higher. But has it gone too far? The RBA may not match ‘hawkish’ market expectations.• Event radar. Locally the RBA (Tues) is the main event. Offshore, the Bank of England meets. In the US several Fed members are due to speak. The positive market mood stemming from the less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting continued on Friday. Softer US jobs and services ISM data supported the...

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03 May 2024

US Job Gains Slow, Reassuring Markets, While Pointing to Weaker Growth

The US job creation engine decelerated in April, relieving financial markets, but pointing to economic turbulence ahead. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 175,000 jobs were added in the month, undershooting the 240,000 consensus forecast, and missing the 200,000 that is now believed sufficient to offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to the prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 22,000 positions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent – above the 3.8 percent expected – and wage gains slowed, helping ease inflation fears. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2 percent...

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03 May 2024

Risk Appetite Improves as US Payrolls Report Looms

The US dollar is cruising into a third day of losses and Treasury yields are softening even as investors brace for what is expected to be another strong payrolls report. North American equity futures are rallying ahead of the open after Apple reported stronger-than-expected earnings and provided a more optimistic sales forecast, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are advancing off very low levels. Economist estimates going into this morning’s non-farm payrolls number are widely dispersed, ranging from a 150,000-position gain on the low end to 280,000 on the high end, with the median landing near the 240,000 mark....

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