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USD

Markets Stabilise Even As Economic Pessimism Grows

Markets are finding a firmer footing this morning after intensifying worries about the US economy’s trajectory weakened the dollar and drove yields and equity bourses lower in yesterday’s session. Today’s data calendar looks relatively quiet, but this afternoon’s Nvidia’s earnings release could move markets, and political developments will continue to occupy centre stage. A widely-watched measure of consumer confidence dropped at the fastest monthly rate since August 2021 earlier this month, suggesting that uncertainty about the Trump administration’s policies is contributing to a rising sense of alarm among Americans. Data released yesterday morning showed the Conference Board’s confidence index sliding...

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New Tariff Threats Add to Unease

The US dollar is up only slightly against its peers this morning after Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada and Mexico are “going forward on time, on schedule”. Speaking with reporters after yesterday afternoon’s meeting with French president Emmanuel Macron, Trump claimed the United States had been “led, in some cases, by fools,” saying “I look at some of these [trade] agreements, I’d read them at night and I’d say, ’Who would ever sign a thing like this?’ So the tariffs will go forward, yes, and we’re going to make up a lot of territory… Our country will be extremely...

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Euro Rises As Moderates Win German Election

The euro is trading with a supportive bias after a centre-right party emerged victorious in Germany’s federal election, avoiding a lurch into extremist territory and paving the way for business-friendly economic reforms. The Christian Democrats led by Friedrich Merz are believed to have won 28.5 percent of the vote against the far-right Alternative for Germany’s 20.8 percent, 16.4 percent for the centre-left Social Democrats, 11.6 percent for the Greens, and 8.8 percent for The Left. The government could find it difficult to enact broad-reaching defence and fiscal policy changes—given that parties on the extreme left and right have enough votes...

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US data rattles markets

• US macro. US growth & inflation concerns rattled market nerves on Friday. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD & NZD slip back.• Policy trends. RBA still looks to be on a different path to many other central banks. This can be AUD supportive on a few of the major AUD-crosses.• Event Radar. In Australia the monthly CPI indicator is due (Weds). Offshore, several US Fed members speak & the PCE deflator is released (Fri night). Global Trends The state of play in the US economy rattled a few market nerves on Friday. Risk sentiment soured...

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USD losing altitude

• Softer USD. Firmer JPY & positive rhetoric about a possible US-China trade deal weigh on the USD. AUD & NZD up at pre-Christmas levels.• US consumer. Update from Walmart raised concerns about the health of the US consumer. Household spending is the engine room of the US economy.• AU jobs. Another positive jobs report. Employment stronger than expected. Data supports the RBA’s ‘hawkish’ guidance about future rate cuts. Global Trends Economic data didn’t move the needle overnight, rather concerns about the health of the US consumer via an update from bellwether stock Walmart and hopes of a trade deal...

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