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USD

28 Oct 2025

AUD: worrisome inflation trends

So much for the inflation dragon being slayed. The Q3 Australian CPI data was a jolt to the system. Headline inflation rose 1.3% in Q3 to be 3.2% higher compared to a year ago, while the trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred gauge which gives a better guide to inflation persistence) rose 1% in the quarter or 3%pa. Inflation momentum has turned up with 3-month and 6-month annualised run-rates at levels that haven’t been seen since H1 2024 (chart 1). On our figuring a slightly greater share of the CPI basket is also rising by 3%pa or more. The Q3 CPI...

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28 Oct 2025

Australian inflation on the radar

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...

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27 Oct 2025

Trade optimism boosts major currencies against the dollar

Global financial markets are starting the week on a buoyant note, with risk-sensitive assets climbing amid hopes of a more lasting thaw in US-China trade relations. The dollar is retreating, benchmark Treasury yields are pushing lower, and equity futures are rising after negotiators on both sides said they had made significant progress on issues including tariffs, fees, and export controls in the weekend’s bilateral discussions in Kuala Lumpur. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that a “very successful framework” had been established ahead of this week’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping. The Canadian dollar is—somewhat counter-intuitively—pushing higher even after...

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26 Oct 2025

Positive risk vibes

• Upbeat tone. Softer US inflation, solid PMIs & positive US/China trade talks support risk sentiment. Equities rose. AUD & NZD strengthen.• US Fed. Upside US inflation risks fading while downside jobs risks rising. US Fed looks set to cut rates this week & should keep door open to more.• AU inflation. Gov. Bullock speaks tonight, Q3 CPI due Weds. Monthly data points to uptick in Q3 inflation. RBA rate cut pricing may be pared back. Global Trends A combination of factors underpinned risk sentiment at the end of last week and in this morning’s early Asian trade. US and...

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24 Oct 2025

Dollar retreats as US inflation slows

Underlying consumer price growth decelerated in the United States last month, clearing the way for a second consecutive rate cut from the Federal Reserve at next week’s meeting, and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to delayed data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in September, accelerating slightly from August’s 0.3-percent increase, and rising 3.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. This undershot consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, and was the slowest pace recorded in...

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