SGD

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

• Market tensions. Outside of a late session rally in US stocks there was a ‘risk off’ tone. Bond yields fell. USD rose. AUD near where it started February.• Volatility. Markets have been volatile since the November US election. Given the Trump policy platform more bursts of volatility likely over the near-term.• Event radar. US tariffs on MX, CA & CH due to start this week. US jobs report & speeches by Pres. Trump & Fed Chair Powell scheduled. AU GDP due. Global Trends Financial markets remain on edge as underlying macro concerns are compounded by geopolitical tensions. Outside of...

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...