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NZD

06 Mar 2025

Policy uncertainty

• Mixed markets. US equities fell. ECB cut rates but gave off ‘hawkish’ vibes. EUR holds onto recent gains. AUD up near its 4-month average.• Push/pull. US tariff news still evolving. Pres. Trump announced temporary exemptions on some imports from Mexico & Canada. The art of the deal?• US jobs. Monthly US jobs report due tonight. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks on the outlook. These events could spark more USD volatility. Global Trends Markets continue to be whipped around by geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In the US, tariff news is still evolving. US President Trump announced that goods from...

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04 Mar 2025

EU on the defensive

• EU spending. Signals about more EU defence spending boosted the EUR. This has weighed on the USD & indirectly given the AUD some support.• Tariffs. US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, & China kicked off. China & Canada announced retaliatory measures. Pres. Trump speaks today.• AU data. Q4 GDP due today. Partial indicators suggest growth momentum improved. RBA easing cycle to be slow & limited. China’s NPC also starts. Global Trends Geopolitical developments continue to push and pull markets. Global equity market losses extended overnight, with larger falls coming through in Europe compared to the US (EuroStoxx600 -2.1%...

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03 Mar 2025

Tariffs & economic risks

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

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02 Mar 2025

Macro & geopolitical risks

• Market tensions. Outside of a late session rally in US stocks there was a ‘risk off’ tone. Bond yields fell. USD rose. AUD near where it started February.• Volatility. Markets have been volatile since the November US election. Given the Trump policy platform more bursts of volatility likely over the near-term.• Event radar. US tariffs on MX, CA & CH due to start this week. US jobs report & speeches by Pres. Trump & Fed Chair Powell scheduled. AU GDP due. Global Trends Financial markets remain on edge as underlying macro concerns are compounded by geopolitical tensions. Outside of...

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27 Feb 2025

Tariff tango

• US tariffs. Pres. Trump confirms tariffs on Canada & Mexico will go ahead next week. Another 10% will also be placed on imports from China.• Negative jolt. US equities lost ground. The USD rose, while AUD & NZD declined ~1%. AUD is back down near where it started the month.• More volatility. Headline driven markets point to more bursts of volatility. Since the late-80s the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~1% daily range. Global Trends A bout of risk aversion washed through markets with US tariff related headlines continuing to generate volatility. After indicating yesterday that the...

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