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NZD

11 Aug 2024

Busy week ahead

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

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08 Aug 2024

What recession?

• Fading concerns. Lower US jobless claims eased US recession fears. US equities surged. Cyclical currencies like the AUD outperformed.• RBA hawks. ‘Hawkish’ rhetoric from RBA Gov. Bullock also supported the AUD. The RBA is diverging from the pack. We think this is AUD positive.• Event radar. Limited data today. Several releases next week including US CPI/retail sales, China data, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. Market fears have continued to fade with cyclical assets enjoying a positive 24hrs. Concerns a US recession is around the corner eased further after the latest read on initial jobless claims fell to a multi-week...

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07 Aug 2024

Fear subsides. But will it last?

• JPY trends. The weaker JPY boosted sentiment yesterday. Asian/European equities rose, as did long-end bond yields. AUD hovering near ~$0.6520.• NZD bounce. Better than feared NZ jobs report supported the NZD. But ‘slack’ is still increasing. A matter of time before the RBNZ starts to cut rates. The market nervousness from earlier this week has continued to subside. Asian and European equities rose 1-2%, with Japan’s Nikkei effectively back to where it was ahead of Monday’s dramatic sell-off. That said, it hasn’t been all one-way with US stock markets fading as the overnight session rolled on (S&P500 -0.8%). Bond...

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06 Aug 2024

Turnaround Tuesday

• Market rebound. Partial reversal in risk sentiment. US equities & bond yields rose overnight. USD index ticked up, while the AUD outperformed.• RBA hold. No change in rates from the RBA. But another hike was considered. Rate cuts still some time away. Policy divergence should be AUD supportive. A sense of calm has returned to markets with a partial reversal of the burst of risk aversion coming through over the past 24hrs. The Japanese Nikkei rebounded sharply with the index up over ~10% yesterday. US equities rose overnight, albeit more modestly (S&P500 +1%), with the VIX volatility index dropping...

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05 Aug 2024

Panic at the disco

• Equity slump. Large falls in global equities. Japan’s Nikkei plunged ~12% yesterday. Fears of a ‘hard landing’ have rattled nerves. Volatility spikes.• Driving factors. Soft US jobs report, lofty valuations, & an unwind of built-up Japan/JPY trades have combined. But credit spreads haven’t moved much.• RBA today. AUD near ~$0.65. Negative sentiment has seen markets factor in rapid-fire RBA rate cuts. We think things may have moved too far, too fast. Crash, bang, wallop. Markets have been in a tailspin over the past few sessions with larger falls in equities, a spike in volatility, and substantial repricing in interest...

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