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NZD

25 Aug 2024

The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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22 Aug 2024

Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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20 Aug 2024

USD doldrums

• Mixed markets. Equities slip back, while bond yields & the USD lose ground. EUR above ~$1.11 for first time this year. AUD at ~1-month high.• Global events. JPY also stronger. BoJ research papers keep door open to more hikes. Canadian inflation slows & Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates again.• US data. Annual US payrolls revisions due tonight. Downward revisions look likely. PMIs (Thurs) & Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Fri) the main events. Mixed, albeit modest moves, across asset markets overnight. After a stellar run equities paused for breath with the US S&P500 slipping back (-0.2%), its first fall in 9...

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19 Aug 2024

USD on struggle street

• Risk on. Equities continue to climb with the S&P500 up for the 8th straight day. The USD has weakened. The AUD is up at a 1-month high.• Fed comments. A few Fed officials have suggested a cut in September is up for debate. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole later this week.• Already priced? But this already looks well priced in. Cautious comments from Powell could see US rate expectations & the USD rebound. No new major news continues to be good news for markets. Equities have continued to power ahead. The US tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed (+1.4%) with the...

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18 Aug 2024

Jackson Hole in focus

• US trends. US equities power ahead, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD up at a multi-week high despite the slump in iron ore.• Fed speech. Fed Chair Powell speaks later this week. Will he push back on the still aggressive near-term rate cut expectations?• Event radar. In addition to the Jackson Hole speech the global PMIs (Thurs), Japan CPI (Fri) & NZ retail sales (Fri) are also due. It was a rather subdued end to a busy week on Friday with limited new economic information released to challenge the status quo. Equities continued to move higher...

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