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NZD

US election is just around the corner

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US stocks hit another record. USD drifted back a little. AUD hovering above its ~6-month average.• US election. A relative quiet calendar means more focus could be on the US election. Former Pres. Trump ahead in the polls in several ‘swing states’.• Event radar. Global PMIs due this week. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again. Several key central bankers scheduled to speak. A relatively quiet end to last week across markets. Equities remain firm with the US stockmarket extending its record run. The S&P500 (+0.4%), which hit yet another record high,...

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Macro divergence

• Divergence. European equities rose, while the S&P500 consolidated. US yields increased. EUR softer. Despite a firmer USD the AUD edged up.• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More easing expected. US retail sales stronger than anticipated. This & US election risks supported the USD.• AU jobs. AUD outperformed after the AU employment report was stronger than projected. RBA on a different path to its peers. China data due today. Economic divergence between the Eurozone and US was on show once again overnight. As anticipated the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25bps, the third move this easing cycle....

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US election coming into view

• Mixed signals. US equities ticked up, while bond yields slipped back. GBP, EUR, NZD, & AUD lost a bit of ground. US election is fast approaching.• US election. Trump is ahead in the polls across most of the battleground swing states. Given his policy platform this is supporting the USD.• Event radar. Locally, the jobs report is due today. Tonight the ECB is expected to cut rates again, while in the US retail sales & jobless claims are due. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. US equities rebounded from the previous days dip with the S&P500 (+0.5%) hovering just below...

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More talk than action

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US S&P500 hit another record. Bond yields ticked up while the USD remained range bound.• China stimulus. More positive rhetoric but no specifics about the next wave of fiscal stimulus. But this looks to be a matter of when, not if.• Event radar. Locally, jobs figures are due (Thurs). Offshore, ECB meets, while US retail sales, NZ CPI, UK CPI, & China GDP are released this week. It was a rather subdued end to last week across markets. European and US equities ticked up with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching yet another record high...

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Expectations matter

• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than predicted. Key underlying trends still point to a series of US Fed rate cuts over the next year.• Event radar. China holds a fiscal policy briefing tomorrow. US PPI tonight. Next week AU jobs, US retail sales, ECB meeting, & China GDP are due. A modest reversal of fortunes across markets overnight despite the latest US CPI inflation reading coming in a touch higher than predicted....

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