NZD

• Geopolitical nerves. US/Israel conflict with Iran has dampened risk sentiment in early Asian trade. USD firmer. NZD slips back. AUD underperforms.• Lingering risks. Market nervousness may persist for a while. Focus on oil. Risk of a jump up in prices. This could have macro impacts & be USD supportive. Global Trends The weekend geopolitical news looks set to dominate the market action, at least through the early part of the week. There is heightened uncertainty following the US/Israel missile attack on Iran, the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes at neighbouring nations....

• AUD strength. Positive sentiment & firmer inflation have supported the AUD. This & JPY weakness have propelled AUD/JPY to a multi-decade high.• Data flow. US producer price inflation due later this week. Looking ahead, AU GDP, as well as the US ISMs, retail sales, & jobs report are out next week. Global Trends There was an upbeat tone overnight with limited fresh economic newsflow coming out over the past 24hrs. US and European equities rose. The US S&P500 (+0.8%) is within striking distance of record highs. A solid earnings update from tech heavyweight Nvidia after the US market close...

• US tariffs. US Supreme Court rules against Pres. Trump. US tariffs being rejigged. USD softer. AUD & NZD a little firmer. AUD still near multi-year peak.• Macro trends. Over medium-term reworking tariff policies may be US growth & USD supportive. This week AU inflation data due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends US tariff developments were in focus on Friday and the weekend. The US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The 6-3 decision was somewhat anticipated given President Trump’s move to bypass Congress (which has control over...

• Positive trends. A run of better than anticipated US data supported the USD. AUD drifted lower. NZD underperforms after yesterday’s RBNZ meeting.• Macro news. RBNZ points to rate hikes later this year. But markets already factoring that in. Australian jobs report in focus today. Will unemployment lift? Global Trends It was a positive night for US markets with equities (S&P500 +0.6%), bond yields (+3bps across the curve), and the USD rising. EUR dipped towards ~$1.1780, USD/JPY tracked the lift in US bond yields (now ~154.80), and GBP remained on the backfoot (now ~$1.3499). The AUD drifted a bit lower...