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NZD

27 Oct 2024

US election: FX inflection point

The US Presidential Election is almost upon us with the vote held next week (5 November US time). While it has been tracked closely in the media for some time the same can’t be said for markets. Other macro and geopolitical developments such as the US/global interest rate cutting cycle, the situation in the Middle East, and macro goings on in China were front-of-mind for most of the past few months. But with the finish line nearing participants have finally been more seriously casting their eye over how the election could pan out and what it may mean for the...

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27 Oct 2024

US data & election in focus

• Mixed moves. US equities consolidated while bond yields nudged up. USD firmer driven by USD/JPY. AUD & NZD lost some ground on Friday.• US elections. US heads to the polls in just over a week. Trump is ahead in the battleground states. Volatility likely over the period ahead.• Event radar. Locally, Q3 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, US GDP & non-farm payrolls are released, as is EZ GDP/CPI & China PMIs. BoJ also meets. Markets were rather subdued on Friday with US equities consolidating (S&P500 flat, NASDAQ +0.6%) and bond yields unwinding the previous day’s dip (US 10yr +3bps...

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24 Oct 2024

Holding steady

• Limited moves. US equities ticked up, while bond yields & the USD eased. AUD treading water just above its 1-year average.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due next week. Gov. subsidies will see headline CPI fall. But improvement in core inflation should be more limited.• US politics. US election around the corner. Chances of a Trump win have risen. But the result may not be known for days/weeks after the event. Limited moves across markets overnight, although on balance there was a slight improvement in the underlying tone. On the back of a ~22% surge in the megacap Tesla’s share...

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23 Oct 2024

Pressure building

• Negative vibes. Wobbles across risk markets with US equities slipping back overnight. Higher US yields supported the USD. AUD under pressure.• Macro trends. Bank of Canada cut rates by another 50bps. Global PMIs due today. US Fed easing expectations have been pared back.• US election. Presidential election fast approaching. Odds of a Trump win & Republican sweep on the rise. This is also boosting the USD. A few wobbles across markets overnight. Base metal and energy prices slipped back, and a selloff in tech stocks weighed on the US equity market with the NASDAQ (-1.6%) underperforming the broader S&P500...

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22 Oct 2024

US election on the horizon

• Treading water. US equities consolidated. Yields generally ticked up. EUR & JPY softer. AUD & NZD unwind some of the falls from yesterday.• US politics. US election less than 2 weeks away. Odds of a Trump/Republican win on the rise. We don’t think the USD is fully factoring this in.• Macro events. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50bps tonight. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks in the morning. Global PMIs also due tomorrow. Most major markets have been in a bit of a holding pattern over the past few sessions given the lack of fresh top tier economic...

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