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NZD

04 Nov 2024

US election day

• Election jitters. A quiet start to the week with traders paring back some ‘Trump trades’. US equities eased & yields declined. USD a bit softer.• US politics. Polls & probability gauges suggest the result is a toss-up. Binary reaction to the outcome likely with volatility also on the horizon.• RBA today. No RBA policy changes expected. It may tweak its macro forecasts. We still think the start of its easing cycle is a story for H1 2025. It has been a relatively quiet start to the week with markets lasering in on the upcoming US Presidential Election. The narrower...

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03 Nov 2024

US election odds swing again

• Market vol. US jobs data & election polls whipsawed markets. USD lost ground this morning (AUD higher) after election polls/odds narrowed.• US election. Voting progressively closes over Wednesday morning AEDT. Market reaction to the result could be binary. Volatility anticipated.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues) with the US Fed expected to cut rates (Fri AEDT). But this should be secondary to the US election. The sticker shock of a weaker than predicted US non-farm payrolls print and US election polls released over the weekend whipsawed markets on Friday night and this morning. On net, US equities increased (S&P500 +0.4%)...

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30 Oct 2024

Swings & roundabouts

• Vol. continues. Intra-session market swings. US/European equities ended the day lower. AUD & NZD nudged up. US data & election on the horizon.• Rates repricing. Positive EZ GDP & higher regional inflation saw ECB rate cut bets pared back. US GDP also solid. Bond yields rose, with EUR ticking up.• AU CPI. Headline inflation back in RBA’s band. This is because of government measures. Core CPI still above. RBA expected to hold next week. Intra-session volatility continued across markets yesterday as participants reacted to the incoming macro news flow. European and US equities ended the session lower (EuroStoxx50 -1.3%,...

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29 Oct 2024

AUD still floundering

• Cross-currents. US equities outperformed. USD still elevated with global growth/US election concerns keeping NZD & AUD on the backfoot.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due today. Government measures will mechanically lower headline inflation. RBA more focused on trends in core CPI.• Data flow. US election is next week. Ahead of that US Q3 GDP is due tonight. PCE deflator & non-farm payrolls also released this week. Mixed signals overnight across markets and regions. Unlike the dip in European equities (EuroStoxx600 -0.6%) the US stockmarket rose. A rally by megacap tech names, which was led by Alphabet after its earnings beat...

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28 Oct 2024

AUD pressure cooker

• Push/Pull. Oil prices tumbled, while US equities, bond yields & USD ticked higher. AUD on the backfoot & is at levels last traded in mid-August.• USD upswing. Higher US yields as well as the weaker EUR & JPY pullback are underpinning the USD. US data could generate more strength.• US politics. US election next week. Odds of Trump winning have risen. Volatility likely with his policy platform also viewed as being USD supportive. There has been a bit more volatility in markets at the start of the week. Oil prices have tumbled with brent crude shedding ~5% (now ~$72/brl)....

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