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NZD

10 Nov 2024

Hang on for the ride

• Market swings. US equities rose, while widening yield spreads support the USD. AUD slips back after China stimulus underwhelms.• FX trends. The Trump policy mix looks set to keep the USD stronger for longer. We think this will constrain the AUD’s medium-term upside.• Event radar. Locally, wages & monthly jobs report are due. US CPI inflation, retail sales, speech by Fed Chair Powell, & China data also scheduled. Market gyrations continued Friday as the win by President Trump in the US elections (and prospect of a Republican sweep of Congress) is incorporated into people’s projections, central bank actions washed...

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07 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0 & the AUD

The decisive victory by former President Trump in the 2024 US election and elevated odds the Republicans also sweep Congress has generated bursts of market volatility over the past few sessions. This might be a taste of things to come. The election result shouldn’t be viewed as a ‘shock’ as it was 8 years ago. The outcome was in line with the signal various opinion polls and probability gauges had been pointing to for several weeks. Nevertheless, as we had forewarned in our prior research, a Trump win (particularly if it was compounded by Republican victories in both chambers of...

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07 Nov 2024

Cool your jets

• Market swings. US equities powered ahead, while bond yields & the USD gave back some of their post US election gains. AUD & NZD rose.• Central banks. BoE & US Fed cut rates. Fed still on a path towards ‘neutral’. In time Trump policies may constrain its ability to lower rates as far as it thinks.• China measures. AUD & other cyclical assets also boosted by expectations China will announce more stimulus. Will China underdeliver again? A reversal of fortunes across most asset classes over the past 24hrs as markets cooled their jets a bit about President Trump’s second...

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06 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0

• US election. Trump’s decisive win has seen markets reprice the outlook. US equities outperformed, bond yields rose, & the USD strengthened.• Fed outlook. US Fed & BoE expected to deliver cuts tonight. But Trump’s agenda points to fewer Fed rate reductions over 2025.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around by US election results. Prospect for higher US rates suggests the AUD may linger in the mid-$0.60s for some time. The US election has been a major market moving force over the past 24hrs, and the result is likely to be a significant factor that influences how things pan out over...

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05 Nov 2024

The race is on

• Getting set. Risk assets outperformed overnight & the USD lost ground. A paring back of ‘Trump trades’ continued ahead of the big event.• US election. Voting progressively closes later today. The battleground states are key. Bursts of market volatility look likely as results flow out.• RBA holds. No change in rates or guidance. The RBA is standing out from the pack. Gradual/modest policy easing anticipated over 2025. Risk assets outperformed overnight as voting in the US election got underway. Given the narrowing in opinion polls and probability gauges over recent days market participants have continued to hedge their bets...

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