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NZD

10 Dec 2024

After leading the global central bank charge, the Reserve Bank is now aggressively reversing course

The impact of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s previous aggressive policy tightening—which was aimed at bringing down rampant inflation—is still working its way through the system. This is a key factor behind the country’s current economic difficulties. New Zealand has effectively been in recession for two years, with the step down in activity clearly manifesting in interest rate-sensitive sectors, the labour market, and inflation. Leading investment and spending gauges are pointing to below-potential growth persisting well into 2025, with unemployment set to trend higher, and price pressures receding due to greater ‘excess capacity’. Economic weakness points to a further...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA: Moving closer to rate cuts

As widely anticipated the RBA held interest rates steady at 4.35% once again at today’s meeting, the final one for 2024. This is where policy has been since November 2023. However, some adjustments to the RBA’s guidance do suggest the door to interest rate relief starting to be delivered in H1 2025 has opened a bit further. Prior rhetoric that the Board “is not ruling anything in or out” has been jettisoned, as was the comment that policy “will need to be sufficiently restrictive” until there is confidence inflation is heading sustainably towards target. Instead, the RBA notes that while...

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09 Dec 2024

China changes its policy tune

• China bounce. Policymakers in China changed their tone when it comes to policy. Prospect of more stimulus supported assets like the AUD.• RBA focus. No rate change expected from RBA. Will it alter its guidance? A tweak could see the AUD lose some ground.• Event radar. RBA today. Later this week, ECB & BoC meet. US CPI inflation also due, & the China CEWC will be held. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with moves that flowed in the wake of Friday nights US jobs data reversing. The catalyst...

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05 Dec 2024

US jobs report in focus

• Marking time. Markets essentially in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. Easing French political concerns support EUR.• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls in focus. Reaction likely to be binary with stronger (weaker) data likely to support (weigh) on the USD.• AUD trends. AUD has clawed back some ground. US jobs report is a near-term risk event. RBA meets on Tuesday. US Fed meets the week after. With little new information to move the dial markets have essentially been in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. European equities ticked higher (EuroStoxx600 +0.4%) while the major...

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04 Dec 2024

Subpar growth weighs on the AUD

• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across the private sector but the level of activity is still high.• Policy impulse. RBA should hold steady next week. Upcoming US jobs report could impact market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Global political ructions have continued but the direct market impact has been minimal. In France, as widely expected, a no-confidence vote in Parliament triggered a collapse of the government. France faces a month-end deadline to sort...

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