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NZD

12 Dec 2024

Macro trends support the USD

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...

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11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA rate cuts coming into view

• RBA rhetoric. Changes by the RBA to its guidance weighed on AUD. NZD has gone along for the ride. Odds of a February RBA cut have risen.• Data driven. Data will drive the RBA’s decision. Jobs report released tomorrow. Quarterly CPI out in late-January.• Global macro. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again tonight. US CPI also due. Sticky core inflation could give the USD more support. Offshore market moves were fairly constrained overnight as participants await the latest read on US inflation (due tonight at 12:30am AEDT). European and US equities dipped with the S&P500 (-0.3%) holding...

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10 Dec 2024

After leading the global central bank charge, the Reserve Bank is now aggressively reversing course

The impact of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s previous aggressive policy tightening—which was aimed at bringing down rampant inflation—is still working its way through the system. This is a key factor behind the country’s current economic difficulties. New Zealand has effectively been in recession for two years, with the step down in activity clearly manifesting in interest rate-sensitive sectors, the labour market, and inflation. Leading investment and spending gauges are pointing to below-potential growth persisting well into 2025, with unemployment set to trend higher, and price pressures receding due to greater ‘excess capacity’. Economic weakness points to a further...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA: Moving closer to rate cuts

As widely anticipated the RBA held interest rates steady at 4.35% once again at today’s meeting, the final one for 2024. This is where policy has been since November 2023. However, some adjustments to the RBA’s guidance do suggest the door to interest rate relief starting to be delivered in H1 2025 has opened a bit further. Prior rhetoric that the Board “is not ruling anything in or out” has been jettisoned, as was the comment that policy “will need to be sufficiently restrictive” until there is confidence inflation is heading sustainably towards target. Instead, the RBA notes that while...

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