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NZD

20 Aug 2025

RBNZ: who let the doves out?

After holding steady last time out the Reserve Bank of New Zealand once again spread its ‘dovish’ wings at today’s policy meeting. As expected, the RBNZ announced another 25bp cut which lowered the Official Cash Rate to 3%, however the updated assessment of the economic landscape was more downbeat and opened the door to settings being moved into ‘accommodative’ territory over future meetings (chart 1). The sluggish performance of the NZ economy remains front of mind with the RBNZ noting the “recovery stalled in the second quarter of this year”. NZ economic growth is forecast to improve but remain below...

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19 Aug 2025

Markets hit an air pocket

• Market wobbles. A small bout of risk aversion overnight. US equities declined while the USD ticked up. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates again today. Will it flag even more easing down the track? NZD & AUD/NZD volatility likely to lift today.• Fed speak. Markets focused on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech (Fri night AEST). Will Chair Powell be more ‘dovish’ than priced? Global Trends A few risk-off wobbles across markets overnight. There was no new major news driving the moves, rather a pullback in some markets with stretched valuations...

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17 Aug 2025

Jackson Hole in focus

• Consolidation. US equities drifted back a bit on Friday, but still rose over the week. USD a little softer. AUD & NZD ticked up modestly.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Global PMIs are due (Thurs). US Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole (Fri night AEST). Global Trends A subdued end to last week across markets as macro and geopolitical forces pushed and pulled on various asset classes. On net, US equities drifted back a bit from record highs on Friday (S&P500 -0.3%), though it wasn’t enough to stop the S&P500 from posting its 6th...

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14 Aug 2025

Revived US inflation fears

• US PPI. Much stronger than expected US producer prices rekindled inflation fears. US yields rose, as did the USD. AUD back below 1-month average.• AU jobs. Employment report broadly inline with forecasts. Unemployment hovering just above 4%. Supports the case for gradual RBA easing.• Data flow. China activity data due today. In the US, retail sales & industrial production out tonight. Data could generate more USD volatility. Global Trends There was a bit of a ripple across markets overnight on the back of resurfacing US inflation fears. US Producer Prices were much stronger than forecast with the 0.9% monthly...

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13 Aug 2025

Shifting Fed views

• Positive vibes. Global equities pushed higher with markets factoring in a series of US Fed rate cuts. USD softer. AUD & NZD edge a little higher.• AU jobs. Volatile employment report released today. Labour demand is cooling. Will the AU jobs data rebound or is a new (weaker) trend forming?• US data. Producer prices & jobless claims out tonight. US retail sales & import prices due Friday. US Fed expectations (& the USD) may be impacted. Global Trends There was limited top tier economic data released overnight. As a result, market sentiment was driven by a few US Fed...

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