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MXN

31 Jan 2025

Tariff Threats Offset Signs of Improving Fundamentals

The US dollar looks set to close out the week with its strongest performance since the middle of November after President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico by tomorrow. The loonie and peso are both down more than a full percentage point on the week, North American equity indices are setting up for a subdued open, Treasury yields are pushing higher, and high-beta currencies remain on the defensive. Inflation pressures in the US remained stable at the end of last year. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core...

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30 Jan 2025

New Trump Tariff Threat Punches Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are spiralling lower this afternoon after US president Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would follow through with imposing 25-percent tariffs on the two countries in retaliation for allowing fentanyl smuggling across their borders. According to some reports, Trump also suggested that he will make a determination on whether oil imports will be covered “this evening”. The story is still developing, and is clearly triggering stops across currency markets, but may not have staying power: we would caution market participants against overreacting, and will again reiterate our view that tariffs...

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30 Jan 2025

Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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28 Jan 2025

Renewed Tariff Threats Clobber Currency Markets

The dollar is back on the offensive after Donald Trump last night said he favours implementing universal tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5 percent. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, the president appeared to double down on threats against auto manufacturers in Canada and Mexico, and said the US would soon hit pharmaceuticals, chips, semiconductors, steel, copper, and a range of other categories with import taxes. An earlier report from the Financial Times suggested that newly-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supports applying an initial 2.5-percent tariff against all US trading partners, with an increase in the same amount coming...

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21 Jan 2025

Currency Markets Retreat as Tariff Nerves Fray

Currency traders are suffering from whiplash after Donald Trump made volatility great again in his first day back in office. The dollar is on the offensive and currencies like the peso, Canadian dollar, and euro are down after the president said he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico on February 1. In an unscripted conversation with reporters last night, Trump said the United States’ closest neighbours were allowing “mass numbers of people to come in and fentanyl to come in,” calling Canada “a very bad abuser”. Trump also warned he “may” impose a universal...

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