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Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Threatening to Ignite Global Trade War

Ending—and beginning—weeks of speculation, President Donald Trump has delivered details of his tariff plan to officials in Ottawa and Mexico City, raising taxes on most imports from Canada and Mexico to 25 percent, in a move that is likely to generate upheaval in the world’s largest integrated trading area and trigger another round of disruption in foreign exchange markets. According to major Canadian news networks*, the president intends to authorise the implementation, as of Tuesday, of 25-percent tariffs on virtually all goods imports, alongside a 10 percent levy on Canadian oil and gas products. If deployed immediately, the increase would...

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Dollar Slips On Potential Deferral of Tariff Threats

The US dollar is retreating against the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar after Reuters reported that the Trump administration plans to implement tariffs on both of its biggest trading partners on March 1—a month later than had been previously threatened. Markets see this timeline providing room for Mexican and Canadian leaders to satisfy the president’s demands on border controls, potentially avoiding extremely-negative outcomes for all three economies. This news item should be taken with a Truth Social-sized grain of salt: the president has walked back several similar articles in recent weeks, indicating in each case that he does not intend...

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Tariff Threats Offset Signs of Improving Fundamentals

The US dollar looks set to close out the week with its strongest performance since the middle of November after President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico by tomorrow. The loonie and peso are both down more than a full percentage point on the week, North American equity indices are setting up for a subdued open, Treasury yields are pushing higher, and high-beta currencies remain on the defensive. Inflation pressures in the US remained stable at the end of last year. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core...

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New Trump Tariff Threat Punches Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are spiralling lower this afternoon after US president Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would follow through with imposing 25-percent tariffs on the two countries in retaliation for allowing fentanyl smuggling across their borders. According to some reports, Trump also suggested that he will make a determination on whether oil imports will be covered “this evening”. The story is still developing, and is clearly triggering stops across currency markets, but may not have staying power: we would caution market participants against overreacting, and will again reiterate our view that tariffs...

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Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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