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MXN

03 Jun 2024

Currency Markets Retreat as Peso Plunges

Markets are on edge ahead of a week littered with event risks. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are down as traders brace for politically-driven volatility in the Mexican peso, decisions from the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, and a series of first-tier data releases in the United States, culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The peso is coming down hard as preliminary results show Claudia Sheinbaum, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s designated successor, on course to win a landslide victory that could give her party the votes needed to remove checks and balances in the...

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30 May 2024

Market Retreat Continues as Yields Climb

Worries about a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve are intersecting with extraordinarily-elevated levels of government bond issuance to drive yields higher, bolstering the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. With ten-year yields climbing across the developed economies, but moving even faster in the United States, the greenback is trading near a two-week peak, and investors are rebalancing away from equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and hawkish comments from Fed officials, markets are struggling to choke down heavy volumes of bond supply. In comments yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively-centrist President Raphael Bostic said “My outlook is...

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21 May 2024

Cautious Fed Messaging Puts Markets on the Defensive

The dollar is inching off a five week low after a slew of Federal Reserve officials repeated their “higher for longer” mantra in a series of appearances yesterday, forcing markets to push rate cut expectations a little farther out. The greenback weakened in recent weeks as a slew of softer-than-anticipated data releases pointed to slowing economic momentum, but gained slightly during yesterday’s session as Federal Open Market Committee members Bostic, Daly, Jefferson, and Mester all said they would need to see more evidence of cooling inflation before contemplating an easing in policy. Markets are back to pricing in a little...

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17 May 2024

Easing Wagers Pull Back Slightly as Wariness Returns

Not so fast. Currency markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders trim US rate-cut bets slightly from levels hit after Wednesday’s Goldilocks-esque inflation and retail sales reports. The greenback is inching up against its major counterparts, long-end Treasury yields are pushing higher, and North American equity futures are setting up for a slightly diminished open. But the dollar’s outperformance has faded in recent weeks. After a series of data releases showing labour markets slowing, consumer spending trending down, and inflation pressures subsiding, economists are revising growth projections lower. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s repeated reference to “restrictive” rate...

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10 May 2024

US Exceptionalism Fades, Weighing On Greenback

The “US exceptionalism” trade took another blow yesterday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to an eight-month high. The jump in jobless claims – up 22,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 231,000 in the week ended May 4 – surprised economists and helped bolster expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, helping erode the dollar’s yield premium and lift other currencies in relative terms. Softness in the labour market dovetails with our belief that re-acceleration hopes for the economy have become overblown, and we think that...

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