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Surging Dollar Squeezes Global Markets

Treasury yields are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is steamrolling its way past an eight-month high this morning as global borrowing costs rise and threaten economies outside the US. This morning’s jobless claims data could deliver further evidence of a cooling in US labour markets. Initial claims have remained low in recent months, but the number of people on longer-term benefits is clearly creeping higher, aligning with a generalised rise in the unemployment rate. According to recent data releases, job openings are now below long-term trends, hiring rates are coming down, the vacancy-to-unemployed worker ratio is back to 2019...

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Rebalancing Flows Drive Mixed Currency Outcomes

Month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows are driving the dollar down against most of its major counterparts this morning, providing a modicum of relief across a range of asset classes. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are edging higher after tumbling yesterday on a rotation out of technology sector stocks, Treasury yields are up almost imperceptibly, and the commodity complex is experiencing a mild bout of mean reversion. The Mexican peso is grinding higher after carry traders piled back in during yesterday’s session, seizing on wide rate differentials and falling volatility expectations to drive the exchange rate to a circa-1.4-percent gain. Investors...

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Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week

Currency traders are on edge ahead of a series of event risks that could trigger renewed volatility in foreign exchange markets. The dollar is inching lower after last week brought confirmation of a weakening in retail sales, along with an unexpected increase in jobless claims during the June non-farm payrolls survey period. Recent data has shown clear evidence of slowing momentum in the US economy, but the greenback has continued to win the “cleanest dirty shirt” contest, emerging largely unscathed as other major currencies have come under selling pressure. Friday’s ‘triple witching’ session left the major equity indices unharmed, but...

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Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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Liquidity Dissipates Ahead of US Holiday

It’s a little weird out there this morning: Ahead of the North American open, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing to further gains after both indices hit record closing highs in yesterday’s session, and investors are positioning for a rebound in US retail sales volumes, along with an increase in uncertainty levels as a series of Federal Reserve officials make public appearances before tomorrow’s holiday market closure. Amid thin liquidity conditions, Treasury yields are inching higher, the dollar is advancing, and most major currency pairs are oscillating within narrow trading ranges as participants move to the sidelines....

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