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Markets Climb on Chinese Stimulus Hopes

Risk appetite is rebounding across the currency markets after Chinese authorities unveiled a raft of stimulus measures designed to boost growth and reinvigorate market sentiment. In a carefully-choreographed announcement, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate and lowered the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve by 50 basis points, freeing up money for lending. It said it would also cut the interest rate payable on existing mortgages and lower down payments on purchases of second homes. And lending facilities equivalent to almost $70 billion dollars will be made available to brokers...

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Markets Steady Ahead of Fedspeak Deluge

Financial markets are seeing consolidative trading patterns take hold after last Wednesday’s bold and decisive move from the Federal Reserve. The dollar is advancing off Friday’s lows, long-term Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are pointing to a healthy open, and the VIX “fear index” – a measure of expected volatility – is pushing lower, suggesting that policymakers succeeded in delivering an emergency-sized rate cut without convincing investors that an emergency is underway. This week, words might speak louder than actions. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will drop tomorrow, Thursday will bring durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims,...

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Second Trump Assassination Attempt Leaves Markets Unruffled

Financial markets are calm and there are no signs of a resurgence in the ‘Trump trade’ after Secret Service agents fired on a gunman at the former president’s Florida golf course. Prediction markets are still showing Kamala Harris holding a slight lead in the race to become the next US president, and assets that might benefit from a policy mix defined by tighter immigration, looser regulations, greater protectionism, and higher inflation – the dollar, Treasury yields, and bank, health, and energy stocks – are broadly softer. The euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar are all up more than half a...

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Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace

Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session. August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but a surprise monthly acceleration in the core measure spooked investors, triggering a surge in the dollar and a rout in equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies. Rationality eventually returned, but odds on a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting were left near 17 percent, down sharply from 33 percent prior to the report. Longer-term repercussions seem minimal. Although expectations for a more aggressive kickoff to the Fed’s easing cycle...

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Dollar Retreats as Trump’s Odds Slip

Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities. The greenback is reversing its three-day rally, short-end Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are retreating ahead of the open. In related news, Harris managed to flip prediction market odds in her favour during a televised debate with former president Donald Trump. Economic policy details were limited, and neither of the candidates managed to land a knockout blow big enough to decide the race,...

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