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MXN

16 Sep 2024

Second Trump Assassination Attempt Leaves Markets Unruffled

Financial markets are calm and there are no signs of a resurgence in the ‘Trump trade’ after Secret Service agents fired on a gunman at the former president’s Florida golf course. Prediction markets are still showing Kamala Harris holding a slight lead in the race to become the next US president, and assets that might benefit from a policy mix defined by tighter immigration, looser regulations, greater protectionism, and higher inflation – the dollar, Treasury yields, and bank, health, and energy stocks – are broadly softer. The euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar are all up more than half a...

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12 Sep 2024

Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace

Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session. August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but a surprise monthly acceleration in the core measure spooked investors, triggering a surge in the dollar and a rout in equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies. Rationality eventually returned, but odds on a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting were left near 17 percent, down sharply from 33 percent prior to the report. Longer-term repercussions seem minimal. Although expectations for a more aggressive kickoff to the Fed’s easing cycle...

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11 Sep 2024

Dollar Retreats as Trump’s Odds Slip

Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities. The greenback is reversing its three-day rally, short-end Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are retreating ahead of the open. In related news, Harris managed to flip prediction market odds in her favour during a televised debate with former president Donald Trump. Economic policy details were limited, and neither of the candidates managed to land a knockout blow big enough to decide the race,...

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05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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30 Aug 2024

Dollar Reverses Higher as Economy Refuses to Slow

The dollar looks set to close out August on a slightly stronger footing as signs of economic resilience help bolster the case for a more cautious rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are ratcheting incrementally higher, stock markets are advancing – led by the biggest technology names – and most major currencies are trading sideways ahead of the North American open. Yesterday’s data releases showed the US economy defying the doom-and-gloom crowd. Real gross domestic product growth was revised upward for the second quarter from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, accelerating sharply from the first quarter’s 1.4 percent...

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