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Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump

Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The dollar is trading on a slightly firmer footing after posting its best performance since February last week, Treasury yields are up incrementally, and equity futures are pointing to modest selling at the open. Both the euro and Mexican peso are trading only slightly below Friday’s closing levels, even after Trump threatened to impose 30-percent tariffs on imports from August 1 in a pair of early-Saturday missives. Traders...

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Trump Raises Tariffs on Mexico and the European Union to 30 Percent

Currency markets are headed for another bruising open when trading begins in Asia tomorrow afternoon after President Donald Trump delivered another set of letters threatening to impose higher tariffs on Mexico and the European Union. In two missives posted to his social media platform, the president said taxes on imports from two of America’s most important trading partners would rise to 30 percent on August 1, separate from other sectoral tariffs on products like steel, aluminum, and automobiles. In his communication to President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump acknowledged “Mexico has been helping me secure the border,” but said “what Mexico has...

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Trump’s Tariff Letters Leave Markets Largely Unmoved

The dollar is losing altitude once again after Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with a fresh round of tariff threats, unsettling global markets and complicating the outlook for monetary policy. Trump sent letters to 14 countries last night—including close allies and key trading partners Japan and South Korea—threatening them with the reimposition of tariffs from August 1, and more are expected today. The greenback is sitting on losses equivalent to roughly half of yesterday’s gain, Treasury yields are up across the curve, equity futures are pushing lower ahead of the open, and the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and euro are...

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Markets Turn Cautious As US Consumer Spending Engine Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing to a more profound slowdown ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, topping market forecasts for a 0.1-percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth sped up to 2.7 percent, also exceeding economist estimates for a 2.6 percent advance, and the prior month’s increase was revised up to 2.5 percent. The overall personal consumption...

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Geopolitical Concerns Ease Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank meetings and a raft of first-tier economic data. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to a recovery from Friday’s losses, and the dollar’s gains are fading in the face of renewed advances from the euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar. An easing in geopolitical uncertainty is putting safe-haven currencies under pressure and oil prices are retreating after Israel and Iran avoided targeting critical energy infrastructure...

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