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MXN

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The dollar is cruising toward a third consecutive day of declines and short-term Treasury yields are coming under mild downward pressure as investors firm bets on a fairly-forceful easing path from the Federal Reserve. Most major foreign exchange pairs are caught in narrow trading ranges amid a lack of political and economic catalysts, leaving currencies like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso almost unchanged on the week. The Fed’s latest Beige Book survey pointed to a slowing in momentum in the world’s largest economy. On balance, “economic activity changed little” between September and October, with three of twelve districts reporting...

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Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent

Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker agreeing to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of chips from AMD while taking a 10-percent stake in the chipmaker over time. The euro is consolidating around lower levels as the dust settles after French...

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Currency trading ranges shrink as markets continue to ignore shutdown risks

Rumours of the dollar’s shutdown-inflicted death have been greatly exaggerated. The greenback is holding firm against its major rivals this morning despite confirmation that the US government will remain crippled into a second week, indicating that traders don’t expect the political impasse to result in any meaningful diminishment in the global appetite for American financial assets. On a week-to-date basis, the pound and euro are up 0.3 percent against the dollar, the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are down 0.2 percent, and the Australian dollar is sitting on a nice circa-1-percent gain after the Reserve Bank signalled a more cautious...

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Fedspeak Deluge Keeps Markets Guessing

The dollar is treading water against its major peers, Treasury yields are drifting lower, and equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open as investors parse mixed signals emanating from Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday’s chorus of Fed speakers was, on balance, decidedly hawkish. St. Louis’ Alberto Musalem said “I supported the 25-basis-point reduction in the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market Committee’s] policy rate last week as a precautionary move intended to support the labor market at full employment and against further weakening. However, I believe there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative”. Atlanta’s Raphael...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Reports

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of the curve. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm, equity futures are setting up for gains at the North American open, and the dollar is trading slightly lower against its major peers after a relatively-subdued reaction to Friday’s data. Markets are assigning better than 100-percent odds to a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report delivered incontrovertible evidence of a slowdown in US labour...

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