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MXN

Iran relief rally punishes dollar

A tentative relief rally is unfolding across global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with yields falling, equities climbing, and the dollar tumbling against its major rivals in early action. US president Donald Trump yesterday threatened to hit civilian targets across Iran, wiping out a “whole civilization,” but reversed direction before his self-imposed deadline, claiming that Pakistan had brokered a compromise and saying “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and...

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Dollar softens as policy uncertainty climbs

Equity markets are lower and the dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts after the US cycled through four different tariff frameworks between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, underscoring the policy uncertainty facing the world’s largest economy. After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, he moved to replace the measures with a flat-rate 10 percent levy on all US imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he then raised to 15 percent on Saturday. The new tariff, which is set to take effect tomorrow and...

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Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariff regime, doesn’t rule on refunds

The Supreme Court of the United States this morning ruled against Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but declined to rule on firm’s eligibility for refunds, meaning that importers will be left to pursue claims through the Court of International Trade. At first glance, the ruling should reduce tail risks for market participants. The threat of abrupt and unilateral changes in US tariff rates has been a persistent source of volatility premia in foreign exchange, particularly for export-sensitive currencies. By narrowing the scope for executive action and lengthening the policy transmission lag, the...

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US economy slows, but exhibits signs of resilience, keeping dollar aloft

The American economy slowed by more than expected in the final quarter of 2025, with weaker consumer spending, trade effects, and the government shutdown combining to sap momentum. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed gross domestic product rising at a 1.4-percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after a 4.4-percent jump in the three months prior, surprising economists who had anticipated a print closer to the 3-percent mark. Household spending decelerated to a 2.4 percent pace from 3.5 percent previously, net exports flatlined as tariff front-running effects continued to offset themselves, and the government shutdown...

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Hawkish Fed minutes keep dollar well-supported

Good morning. The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts as the aftermath of yesterday’s more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve minutes puts upward pressure on yields and weakens demand for speculative asset classes. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher, equity futures are setting up for modest losses ahead of the North American open, and the euro, pound, and Mexican peso are all coming under mild selling pressure even as rate curves shift upward in sympathy. Federal Reserve officials showed little inclination to ease policy at last month’s meeting, with the bulk of the rate-setting committee hoping to see further progress...

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