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Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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Economic Scepticism and Soft Inflation Weigh on Dollar

Euphoria surrounding the weekend’s US-China tariff climbdown is fading this morning, and the dollar is retreating in the face of a third consecutive monthly undershoot in inflation data. Treasury yields are pushing lower, equity futures are pointing slightly higher, and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are back to outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. Consumer price growth slowed in the United States last month, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more breathing space as it seeks to address slowdown risks in the economy. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price...

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Dollar Strengthens On Milder Risk Backdrop

Risk appetite is returning to global financial markets this morning as investors move to price in rate cuts and traders welcome a more conciliatory tone from the Trump administration on trade and monetary independence issues. The president and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both made supportive noises on trade negotiations during yesterday’s session, and a number of Federal Reserve officials highlighted downside risks in public appearances. North American stock market futures are setting up for a modestly-lower open, but the US ten-year Treasury yield is pushing lower, and the dollar is strengthening against its safe-haven alternatives in Japan, Switzerland, and the...

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Markets Plunge as Trump Administration Steps Up Threats Against Fed

Financial markets are getting hit again this morning, with US equity indices, Treasuries, and the dollar all tumbling in synchrony as investors assess new threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence against an increasingly-forbidding growth backdrop in the world’s largest economy. The greenback dropped more than 1 percent on a trade-weighted basis in overnight markets after the Trump administration stepped up its attacks on Jerome Powell, threatening to demolish the Fed’s hard-won independence from political pressure. In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform last week, Trump argued that interest rates should be cut, saying “Powell’s termination cannot come...

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Relief Rally Runs Out of Steam Despite Tame US Inflation Data

Stock-index futures are edging lower and the dollar is weakening once more as the initial optimism sparked by yesterday’s tariff reversal yields to a more measured assessment of the risks still facing the US and world economies. Equity futures are setting up for a circa-1.5-percent loss at the North American open, ten-year Treasury yields are stuck near the 4.3 percent mark, and the greenback is heading toward a third day of losses against its major counterparts. The safe-haven Japanese yen is in the ascendant, and the euro is climbing after European Union officials announced plans to postpone retaliatory measures against...

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