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MXN

13 May 2026

Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets

Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end to “Operation Epic Fury” when a ceasefire took effect in early April, with the expectation that a new designation would reset the 60-day legal clock requiring congressional authorisation for hostilities. Intelligence assessments publicised by the New York Times** suggest Iran retains roughly...

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08 May 2026

Escalation in Middle East leaves volatility levels unchanged

Good morning, and happy Friday. The dollar is heading for a second week of losses and oil prices are drifting lower after yesterday’s exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz failed to shift Donald Trump’s rhetorical stance, reinforcing investor confidence in the US eventually finding an off-ramp in the conflict. The president said the ceasefire agreed in early April remained in effect, describing the situation as a “trifle” after Tehran launched a series of missile, drone, and boat-swarm attacks on US warships in the Gulf, prompting retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets and port facilities. Brent crude is trading...

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07 May 2026

The superpeso’s next act

Mexico’s currency has had an improbably good run. The peso appreciated 15% against the dollar last year, and has continued its run thus far in 2026, printing another 4.5% gain. Yet beneath the superpeso’s gleaming surface, the economy it represents looks decidedly less impressive. Growth has been feeble. GDP expanded just 0.6% in 2025, and the economy contracted outright in the first quarter of this year. American tariffs—first levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, then replaced with duties under Section 122 of the Trade Act—have cast a long shadow over manufacturing, particularly the automotive sector that forms the...

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07 May 2026

Markets stall amid lack of progress in Mideast negotiations

Good morning. Yesterday’s rally in global financial markets is running out of momentum as investors await evidence of tangible progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran is reportedly reviewing a one-page, 14-point US proposal under which sanctions would be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz opened to shipping in exchange for a suspension of nuclear enrichment activities*. Oil prices are stabilising, with Brent settling near $100 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate oscillating around $93. Yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for incremental gains at the open, and the greenback is moving modestly lower against a...

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08 Apr 2026

Iran relief rally punishes dollar

A tentative relief rally is unfolding across global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with yields falling, equities climbing, and the dollar tumbling against its major rivals in early action. US president Donald Trump yesterday threatened to hit civilian targets across Iran, wiping out a “whole civilization,” but reversed direction before his self-imposed deadline, claiming that Pakistan had brokered a compromise and saying “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and...

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