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JPY

27 Sep 2023

Higher Oil, stronger USD

• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the RBA to tighten further remains. Retail sales due today. Another night of bearish sentiment with a further jump in oil prices fanning inflation fears which in turn feed through to bond yields and a stronger USD. WTI crude...

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27 Sep 2023

Bonds have more fun

Treasury yields are retreating from multi-decade highs, helping relieve pressure on equity and foreign exchange markets. North American stock markets look set to open in the green and the dollar is putting in a mixed performance, but the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is inching lower, and background volatility measures are creeping up. Bond yields moved higher in yesterday’s session after home prices resumed their rise, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index climbing for a fifth month in July – a development that could indicate financial conditions are still too loose, and one that suggests inflation might remain sticky for longer....

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26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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26 Sep 2023

Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum

Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand. Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot and press conference remain in play – which marks a contrast with the earlier part of the year, when markets repeatedly faded Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message. A number of factors may have led to...

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25 Sep 2023

Bond yields bounce back

• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released on Thursday. Various factors point to a re-acceleration in inflation. After easing slightly at the end of last week bond yields jumped back up overnight, led by moves at the long-end of the curve. German and UK 10yr yields rose...

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