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JPY

31 Jan 2024

Fed leans against near-term cuts

• Fed focus. No change from the Fed. Tone was more ‘neutral’ & while Chair Powell pointed to easing later this year he also watered down odds of a March cut.• Market vol. Another burst of volatility as markets digested the US data & adjusted near-term Fed expectations. AUD whipped around (now ~$0.6560).• AU CPI. Q4 inflation slowed more than forecast. Markets are pricing in a chance of a RBA rate cut as soon as next week. We don’t see this happening. Another burst of market volatility overnight with the latest Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference center stage....

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31 Jan 2024

Traders Turn Cautious Amid Event Risk Onslaught

Markets are beginning to wake from their long slumber. With month-end flows, the Treasury’s Quarterly Rebalancing announcement, the Employment Cost Index, and a Federal Reserve decision in the docket for the day ahead, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is up – classic signs of risk aversion. China’s manufacturing sector remained mired in a downturn in January, suggesting that half-hearted government stimulus efforts are failing to generate enough domestic demand to offset weaker export markets. The National Bureau of Statistics’ official manufacturing purchasing manager index rose slightly to 49.2 in...

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30 Jan 2024

US Fed & Australian CPI in focus

• Consolidation. Better than expected US labour & Eurozone GDP data pushed up front-end bond yields. But FX moves were limited. AUD near $0.66.• AU inflation. Q4 CPI forecast to slow a little more than the RBA was thinking. But details matter. Attention will be on how services prices are evolving.• US Fed. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. Risks the Fed pushes back on near-term rate cut pricing appear high. This may give the USD a boost. Consolidation across markets overnight with sentiment waxing and waning as the data rolled in and with participants focused on tomorrow mornings...

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29 Jan 2024

Upbeat vibes. Will it last?

• Positive tone. US equities higher as bond yields dip. News the US Treasury had reduced its borrowing estimates a factor. USD slips back, AUD firmer.• More vol? There is a long list of global data releases this week, with the US Fed also meeting. More bursts of short-term volatility likely.• AU data. Retail sales expected to decline as Black Friday boost unwinds. Q4 CPI (due tomorrow) likely to come in below the RBA’s thinking. It has been a relatively positive start to an action-packed week that includes US Fed and Bank of England meetings, key global releases such as...

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28 Jan 2024

Will the US Fed lean against rate cut pricing?

• Soft landing? US GDP & PCE inflation data supported ‘soft landing’ views. Growth was better than expected, while inflation pressures continue to ease.• FX consolidation. Despite the macro signals FX majors have been range bound. USD is treading water, with AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. It is a busy week with Eurozone GDP/CPI, China PMIs, Australian inflation, & a range of US labour stats wrapped around the US Fed meeting. Last weeks economic dataflow supported views the US remains on the very narrow path towards a ‘soft landing’. US GDP exceeded expectations with growth running at...

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