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JPY

03 Mar 2026

Middle East concerns rattle markets

• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock noted the March meeting is “live”. China PMIs also due. US ISM services & ADP employment out tonight. Global Trends The broadening conflict in the Middle East and concerns that it could drag on longer than the “4 to 5 weeks” touted by President Trump rattled market nerves overnight. Risk sentiment soured as ‘stagflation’ worries took hold given the prospect of a simultaneous slowdown in growth and...

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03 Mar 2026

Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens

Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing few signs of easing, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, traders are unwinding cross-border positions and retreating to the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets in a pattern known to currency traders as the “dollar smile”*. Ten-year Treasury yields are flirting with the 4.10 threshold after their sharpest single-session rise since October, North American equity futures are setting up for a bruising loss at the...

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01 Mar 2026

Duck & Cover

• Geopolitical nerves. US/Israel conflict with Iran has dampened risk sentiment in early Asian trade. USD firmer. NZD slips back. AUD underperforms.• Lingering risks. Market nervousness may persist for a while. Focus on oil. Risk of a jump up in prices. This could have macro impacts & be USD supportive. Global Trends The weekend geopolitical news looks set to dominate the market action, at least through the early part of the week. There is heightened uncertainty following the US/Israel missile attack on Iran, the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes at neighbouring nations....

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01 Mar 2026

Currency markets brace for modest moves as Iran strikes fail to shift strategic calculus

Currency markets are set for a jolt when trading resumes this afternoon, though the reaction may prove less dramatic than the weekend’s headlines might suggest. US and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent missiles arcing across the Middle East and claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting celebrations in Iranian cities. Yet for all the pyrotechnics, the military campaign appears calibrated to avoid the kind of escalation that would force a wholesale repricing of risk assets. American and Israeli forces are conducting what military planners often describe as “lawn mowing” operations—hits on missile infrastructure and targeted assassinations of...

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28 Feb 2026

US and Israel launch regime change attempt in Iran, potentially roiling markets

The US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran earlier this morning, with the apparent aim of overthrowing the regime that has ruled since 1979. In an early-morning address, US president Donald Trump said “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” telling Iranians: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” Verifiable news has been limited, but the initial barrage appears to have targeted Iranian leadership, not wider military or economic infrastructure. Explosions have...

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